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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah even I figured out that much :) I'm trying to get an idea of if the precip is going to make it north of the immediate metro when that might happen. If I can get home by ~6pm or so will travel conditions still be reasonable or will it start getting dicey by then. It's just about which car I use tomorrow.

The nam has accumulating snow all afternoon, most other models don't. It could be over by 6pm or just getting started....Good luck :P

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. 

What do you see as best case accumulations for the city.

Your posts are more on the conservative (and unfortunately accurate side), but would love to know if you think we have a shot at seeing 6 inches on the ground?

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13 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

THE CMC is NOT so bad for NYC. The 1 inch liquid line is literally 20 miles south of the south shore and SI...

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here.

I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs

sketched_5aafede5aa4d9.png

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here.

I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs

sketched_5aafede5aa4d9.png

Luckily the GEPS are much better and extend precipitation well into Monticello area, safe to toss ggem? 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here.

I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs

sketched_5aafede5aa4d9.png

Why are you correcting him?  He said that the cutoff was 20 miles south of Staten Island, you didn't need to draw the black line to show where the cutoff line is.

Besides, the CMC was close to a big hit for NYC at least, so it really wasn't that bad.

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1 minute ago, Dino said:

really worried about dry air.  WRF is hinting at difficulties getting snow north of Mason Dixon line -- its like it hits a wall from 30hrs-48hrs

Some of our biggest snowstorms battled dry air for the first 12 hours or so. If it wasn't for that cold, dry air to the North, this would likely be mostly rain for the coastal plain.

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Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Why are you correcting him?  He said that the cutoff was 20 miles south of Staten Island, you didn't need to draw the black line to show where the cutoff line is.

Besides, the CMC was close to a big hit, at least for NYC, so it really wasn't that bad.

Because that 0.5" that it shows for NYC is probably bogus. That run was not as good for NYC as some people make it out to be. Remember 2/6/10, where SI and Monmouth got buried but Central Park barely hit advisory criteria.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Because that 0.5" that it shows for NYC is probably bogus. That run was not as good for NYC as some people make it out to be. Remember 2/6/10, where SI and Monmouth got buried but Central Park barely hit advisory criteria.

Oh I agree, moderate QPF won't get it done, but it is close to something bigger.

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