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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3K NAM really gets nothing in here with wave 1.  I’ll wait to see if the RGEM or other guidance follows the 32K NAM on that idea 

I'm figuring that the first wave is mostly a miss. If we pull out a dusting that would be a win.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Someone will get insane totals tomorrow with that wave in NJ.  I could see close to a foot happening somewhere.  It’ll probably be further north than expected as well.  It could very well be darn close to NYC but just north of that zone will barely see a flake 

exactly...haves and have nots will be close to each other with dry air fighting against that slow-moving frontogenesis.

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2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

This looks like a 1-2 feet from DC to Boston. What a storm depicted on the 12z nam. This is why we’re big weather enthusiasts! Times like these! Nice PBP from you guys thank you. Back to lurking!

That's a bit extreme, 6 to 12 with isolated higher amounts assuming nam and Euro are right

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Someone will get insane totals tomorrow with that wave in NJ.  I could see close to a foot happening somewhere.  It’ll probably be further north than expected as well.  It could very well be darn close to NYC but just north of that zone will barely see a flake 

If I had to guess

Obviously, dark blue area with the highest totals.

sketched_5aafd41419eeb.png

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's a bit extreme, 6 to 12 with isolated higher amounts assuming nam and Euro are right

As I said earlier.  There are some similarities to 12/5-6/03.  The 2nd wave really underperformed in that setup.  The models are obviously better today but we have to watch to see if wave 2 trends somewhat sloppy over time as it’s just tough to see two disntinct disturbances both drop big snows even if they aren’t in the same locations but same general region 

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11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

This looks like a 1-2 feet from DC to Boston. What a storm depicted on the 12z nam. This is why we’re big weather enthusiasts! Times like these! Nice PBP from you guys thank you. Back to lurking!

10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading.  As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least.  Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut.  Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 30-50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM forecast played out.

index.gif

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As I said earlier.  There are some similarities to 12/5-6/03.  The 2nd wave really underperformed in that setup.  The models are obviously better today but we have to watch to see if wave 2 trends somewhat sloppy over time as it’s just tough to see two disntinct disturbances both drop big snows even if they aren’t in the same locations but same general region 

I believe most places got 6-10 from each wave, but wave 1 definitely oveperformed

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3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said:

10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading.  As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least.  Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut.  Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM dynamics played out.

index.gif

Nam shows 6-10 with sleet and snow.

It will be cold enough for all areas.

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The nam being so erratic has to be taken into consideration. Typically when it's right it locks on to a solution
The NAM being so high resolution is making it jump around imo. It's attempting to work out the details and the fact that it's resolution is so high can easily lead this to focus on one attribute one run and another minute attribute the next thus leading to the different scenarios.
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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I doubt anyone uses this map

why ? ratio's have a good chance of being below 10:1 during at least part of the storm and also have to consider in any sleet that manages to fall in certain areas

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