Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Joe4alb said: NYC S & E went from 0 to 3-4" from the first wave. I'll take it. The nam being so erratic has to be taken into consideration. Typically when it's right it locks on to a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like wave 2 should be slightly NW of 6z as the heights are a bit higher. Wave 1 was so different though so this should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 not all of that would be snow...850 temps come above freezing in the evening and are still there at 12Z wed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Precip breaking out for wave 2, 987mb off the VA Capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: not all of that would be snow...850 temps come above freezing in the evening and are still there at 12Z wed on this run. pretty nasty warm layer between 750-850...looks like sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Great track coming in but mid levels are toasty. Could be looking at a slizzard here for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Great track coming in but mid levels are toasty. Could be looking at a slizzard here for I-95. But all that sleet will help the snow accumulate easily once it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 If it sleets for that long, the GSP and I-95 will be a demolition derby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Coming North, 985mb off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: But all that sleet will help the snow accumulate easily once it changes over. It doesn't change over until after 10am and at 18z it's still not snow east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Big difference in snow totals. Looks more like the 18z from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sleet to snow for the coast on the Nam with surface temps around 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The liquid equivalent on this run will be sick, and a major winter storm for I-95. How much is sleet vs snow remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: Big difference in snow totals. Looks more like the 18z from yesterday. Nice trend and good track but right now it's lots and lots of sleet for the first part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I wouldnt use this NAM run for precip types. Just for general track trends. With a 988 LP sitting right off the delmarva, In would think the 850s would be below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 mid-level fronto banding is gorgeous in the afternoon as the 700 and 500 lows close off in the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like all snow, except for E LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Any chance of some convection? i.e., thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 People really need to stop worrying about p types when just 24 hours ago we wasn’t sure if we was getting anything. Those 850s will be colder than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 It looks like the first storm doesn't exit, but stalls out and they merge with the second system to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looking like maybe 2-4" from first wave and 3-6" from second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Any chance of some convection? i.e., thundersnow? Cranky is calling for thunder sleet. It looks possible Wednesday in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: Cranky is calling for thunder sleet. It looks possible Wednesday in NJ. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Do we know yet if there is a lull between wave 1 into wave 2 or is it continuous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Do we know yet if there is a lull between wave 1 into wave 2 or is it continuous? looks like they merge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lull from late Tuesday night through Wed afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Any chance of some convection? i.e., thundersnow? yup, good lapse rates and dry air + closing off mid-levels +march is as good a setup as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Looking like maybe 2-4" from first wave and 3-6" from second... 1-1.5" liquid so the potential exists for a foot even with some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: not all of that would be snow...850 temps come above freezing in the evening and are still there at 12Z wed on this run. It's why Pivotal has so little "snow" shown south of 195/276, which I think is a problem - would rather see sleet and snow, like TT has, as sleet has all the same impacts as snow (mass is all that matters for travel/snow removal), except obviously visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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