Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

Recommended Posts

So I get that the models have trended northward over the past 24-48 hours. But has anyone taken a look specifically at surface temps in NYC + precip intensity + the amount of progged snowfall during the day vs. night (at least as progged currently) to see if the precip is likely to accumulate? SnowGoose69 makes the point that this time of year, you really need low surface temps + we all know that sun angle and ground level warmth play directly into the forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, larrye said:

So I get that the models have trended northward over the past 24-48 hours. But has anyone taken a look specifically at surface temps in NYC + precip intensity + the amount of progged snowfall during the day vs. night (at least as progged currently) to see if the precip is likely to accumulate? SnowGoose69 makes the point that this time of year, you really need low surface temps + we all know that sun angle and ground level warmth play directly into the forecast.

The gfs and Euro have temps in the 30 to 32 range so this is considerably colder than 2 weeks ago. We still need good rates of course but this airmass is a lot better

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

12z should be coming out within the next hour correct?

Add an hour for dst

time model starts to run

 

GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM)

GEFS (Eneembles):   12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM)

NAM: 9:00, 3:00  (AM/PM

SREF:  8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM)

RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM)

GGEM (CMC):  11:00 (AM/PM

UKMET:  10:40 (AM/PM)

ECMWF (Euro/ECM):  12:45 (AM/PM)

ECM ensembles:  3:00 (AM/PM)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The number 1 & 2 analongs over the East at 48hrs are 2/17/03 and 2/11/83 respectfully. 2/6/10 is number 5.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2018031900&map=thbCOOP72

The first piece has 03 similarities while the 2nd is more similar to 83.  The first one has that relatively weak low with an overrunning signal while the 2nd piece is basically a non phaser self amplifying shortwave similar to 12/09 and 2/83.

The whole setup combined though may be closest to December 2003 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • BxEngine locked this topic
  • Rjay unlocked this topic
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...