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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The key really is that confluince, which was much further NE on the 18z run. We need that to get out of the way or it’s a no go no matter how great h5 looks. 

The confluence isnt helping things because it prevents heights from building northeast of the ULL, thus preventing it from slowing down and tilting more negatively.

However, id wager that if you took that large vort rotating around the base of the trough at 57 and rotate it 90 degrees around the base of the trough and have it riding northward, youd have a major storm close to the coast, as  heights would try to build under the confluence like we saw on the 18z run

My point is, this run was simply a timing difference from being a major storm for a lot of people here

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Difficult to tell with the b/w maps... but the 48 hr RGEM 500 mb chart looks similar (not the same) to the 00z NAM.

The trough axis is ever so slightly east of the NAM it appears (546 DM height line is through central PA, as opposed to western PA).

At the same time, however, the confluence over southern Quebec does not appear to be quite as pressing... 

Again though, its hard to tell small differences trying to compare the two maps, so will have to wait for the tidbits version to come out to better compare the two

 

Rather than add another post, ill just edit this one...

Looks as though ICON is slightly more amped vs 18z, for whatever that is worth
 

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

This may be a bit of a premature statement but I think the confluence is really going to wind up hurting us here in the end. Still amazed we are worried about that in mid March.

Its a fickle thing... without that confluence we may end up with an inland runner... too much of it and we're likely watching this thing sail across the ocean

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Looks like the GGEM looks like the RGEM. A close miss for the metro area. As it stands right now most models (NAM, RGEM, GGEM) have a good 500mb look. We still have 2 days to for adjustments to occur for a better result for the metro area. Not a terrible position to be in.

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FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI.  The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there.  Still, looks like good trends at this point.

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7 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI.  The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there.  Still, looks like good trends at this point.

Euro has a slow moving snowstorm for the area

CMC ensembles are west of the op

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That Ukie/Euro combo is tough to ignore less than 3 days out. 

But where will that gradient set up exactly?

06z Nam got a lot better again but it's been flip flopping like crazy so I wouldn't trust it.

This will def be a colder storm though (if it happens) because there's a lot more dry air this time, lower wet-bulb temps. 

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