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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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4 minutes ago, Ace said:

We'll see how it turns out, but I do believe it will be closer to its 18Z depiction than its 12Z depiction.

I'm a big fan of toggling back and forth each frame (current vs previous run).  They made it so easy nowadays and it really helps when conparing small difference in the evolution of a storm.

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3 minutes ago, Ace said:

The second shortwave being slower vs 18Z made the difference. If it was not slower, then this would have been shunted east.

Guys, feel free to post trend gif's from tropical tidbits of the h5 set up so everyone who is too busy can have a peak and maybe learn something.  Im a little busy right now.  

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whats interesting with this whole thing now is that the initial vort isnt getting completely squashed, its simply weakening an stalling over northern Kentucky. This leftover circulation becomes a fulcrum, so to speak, around which the s/w's diving into the trough will rotate around. What will dictate how far north the storm would theoretically get before stalling once rounding around that fulcrum is the confluence to the north. The further south that is, the further south the low is. It would also mean colder temps aloft, which would be good so long as we get the precip

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Just now, allgame830 said:

That looks like a negative tilt or my eyes are just tired....

It is, but a large part of the vorticity is still rounding the base of the trough, so its not done maturing as a negatively tilted trough yet... we'll see how it goes, it can only go so far north with the confluence up north

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988 and no precipitation in the northern half of Delaware lol :facepalm:
The NAM just had a vomit session....not even a hiccup. The surface is nowhere near matching what H5 just spit out. That H5 is a big ticket event in the making. I think this is a case where the NAM resolution is having significant challenges handling the dynamic deepening alot. Even 18z was junk at the surface. The critical levels were posted above.....H5 and 300mb. Those are key.
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5aaf248e94734_namconus_z500_vort_us_fh57_trend(1).thumb.gif.3b185b3bc65f370ded66be5d665bc1a2.gif

 

A few things to note here...

1. Increased confluence (which has been noted several times by everyone here) over northern NE/Southern Quebec.

2. Location of the ULL... Again, this will be the pivot point, the further west this is, the further west the storm will drive north

3. Note the intense vorticity coming around the base of the trough on the 00z run. This was absent on the 18z run. The result of this, is that it keeps dragging the trough axis eastward as opposed to northward. Since it is the area of strongest PVA as well, the ULL closes off the coast with this piece rather than with the weaker piece already around the base of the trough... you can see in the 18z run, this "Weaker" piece is the dominant piece where the ULL forms at the coast, resulting in a further north solution

 

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