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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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Just now, bluewave said:

It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this  S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

Just ease the confluence alittle more

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this  S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

I wouldn't be excited about the NAM standing alone. But it's definitely better than no support for a storm. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's still outside its best range. But its currently the furthest north piece of guidance. Nobody would worry about snow sticking on even the pavement in NYC if this  S+ and daytime 20's verified. Now we just hope it can hold onto this going forward.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning.

Euro last week had 12 + for next week. Maybe its the time where the models lose this storm.

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At this point I would want at least 1 other major model to show this or more north for wiggle room. Seeing the NAM go south by 25 miles in one run is concerning.

Need to see guidance make a move north within the next 24 hrs or we're in trouble...

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4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

12Z is sweet, but too close for comfort...

some of the best storms around here were too close for comfort - last thing you want to see is the precip shield extending well north of the metro then you will get into precip type issues - NAM has been doing fairly well since the pattern changed a few weeks ago

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

U and I are 1 storm away from probably the snowiest March ever. But this one I feel is slipping away.

it'll come down to the strength of that confluence up north....this one will have a crazy cutoff where someone gets 10 and Ten miles away it's 3 inches

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it'll come down to the strength of that confluence up north....this one will have a crazy cutoff where someone gets 10 and Ten miles away it's 3 inches

i remember it was the nam vs the other models in the 2016 blizzard the confluence for days was going to give the big totals to dc and philly.. nyc would not get much.. but the confluence was not as strong as originally thought and nyc hit the jackpot...

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7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

 

About the same.  

no - its much further east Tue 18Z on the 6Z run - although it looks more strung out with 2 low centers  the system slowed down and the position at 12Z is closer to the 12Z NAM - strength is almost the same it is how the models handle the precip shield - I doubt the precip shield is accurate and it will make a huge difference

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_14.png

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