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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If there’s a high bringing cold air down, maybe there’s a chance down here. But there’s so much that has to go right that it’s pointless for me to get interested unless it’s  still showing this a couple of days out. I couldn’t care less about another marginal/lousy surface air setup where coastal areas and the city are relying on 33-34 temps and paltry rates. Count me right out of that. Couldn’t care less either what any snow map shows for that. It’ll be a couple inches or less of slop that melts by late afternoon. 

Snowmaps are even more useless with this one than any of the others. Yet I guarantee that many will be posting them religiously when they show two feet of snow.

Id lean towards the snow DEPTH maps in this situation and in any marginal event as they have done much better throughout the  month of March over any 10 to 1 or to a lesser extent the Kuchera method maps. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This storm can easily be suppressed if the PV and confluence to the north are too strong. Doesn't matter if it's Jan or March. 2014 had several suppressed March storms. 

Completely agree.   While I dont think this ends up suppressed, it's plausible.  Model guidance doesn't care what month it is.   

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I tend to agree with Goldberg. The pattern is not one that is consistent with those in which storms have typically been suppressed in March. Shorter wave lengths mean that teleconnection values that might be conducive to suppression in January or February are not necessarily conducive to suppression in March. The storm could well pass to our south, but the odds that Washington, DC would see more snow than New York City are probably about one-in-three if that high.

If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recover for a storm to get far enough north to affect us.  It would 100% be squashed south.  

Climo argues against what I just said so we'll see.

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8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recover enough for a storm to get far enough north to affect us. 

only the last run of the EURO was showing that  extreme a scenario with the system missing completely south of the region- runs before the 12Z were showing a SECS - lets see what happens at 0Z....plus this is the time before the storm that the models tend to lose it for a few runs only to bring it back later

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23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

only the last run of the EURO was showing that  extreme a scenario with the system missing completely south of the region- runs before the 12Z were showing a SECS - lets see what happens at 0Z....plus this is the time before the storm that the models tend to lose it for a few runs only to bring it back later

The Euro was backed up by its ensembles.  The problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP.

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16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro was backed up by its ensembles.  Thr problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP.

I dunno whatever they did to that model really scaled back it’s deadliness. And I certainly agree that even the EPS are really just a multi-variate solution of the OP solution at this point rather than a display of different perturbations of solutions.

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

The Euro was backed up by its ensembles.  The problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP.

These EPS are not your Fathers EPS.

I know a lot of mets that don’t even use the ensembles anymore. 

Personally I find them most useful for trends with blocking.

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recove for a storm to get far enough north to affect us.  It would 100% be squashed south.  

Climo argues against what I just said so we'll see.

My guess is that the ECMWF is overdoing the PV.

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has a good deal of precip coming in at 84 hours with surface temps below freezing.

It handles the s/w's in the southern stream much differently than the GFS. 

Theres the initial s/w which is the bowling ball that gets sheared out on the GFS and then another trailer wave behind it. The NAM seems to focus on that lead wave with the trailing wave catching up to and phasing into it. Meanwhile the GFS, as previously noted, runs the first wave out ahead and shears it out, allowing the trailer wave to become the basis for the next waves of LP to develop.

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3 hours ago, weatherbear5 said:

Quite frankly, with so many players on the field we're not going to have much of a clue how everything is going to come together until Sunday, maybe even early next week. So many variables in this storm

It seems like every snowstorm is like that. We never really have a handle on it until the day before. Maybe a handful of storms in history were forecasted a week out and came to frutation exactly how the models had it. 

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