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March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat


Rjay

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If there’s a high bringing cold air down, maybe there’s a chance down here. But there’s so much that has to go right that it’s pointless for me to get interested unless it’s  still showing this a couple of days out. I couldn’t care less about another marginal/lousy surface air setup where coastal areas and the city are relying on 33-34 temps and paltry rates. Count me right out of that. Couldn’t care less either what any snow map shows for that. It’ll be a couple inches or less of slop that melts by late afternoon. 

Yeah I am more or less in the same camp.  I do think suppression is unlikely given the tele's and time of year.  But, at least where I sit, I am not confident that this doesn't just amount to another hodgepodge of plain and white rain.  Interior and elevated people seem most favored here.  Even if they receive less overall precip, they are far more likely to receive a greater proportion of their total in frozen form. 

Could the stars align and prove me wrong?  Yes, and I hope it pans out that way.  But right now, I cannot bring myself to become invested in this one...at least not yet.

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9 minutes ago, Enigma said:

March suppression? hahaha

Isn't that literally happening with the first low to eject out of the west now into this weekend?

If you looked only at the 500mb chart from Nebraska westward you'd think that thing was gonna run into the Dakotas. It runs into a brick wall of confluence, and is suppressed.

its going to depend on what the ULL over SE Canada does

and just to clarify, i don't necessarily think that suppression is the most likely scenario, but it's not impossible

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I see what you're saying.

Looks like I confused heights with thicknesses.

The Euro also shows the 540 thickness draped over the region. If that ends up being true, then we're toast.

I still stand by my earlier statement that you do not want the GGEM solution. 

The Euro 1000-500mb 540 thickness never gets north of TTN, unless there's odd 3 hour jumps north that I don't have access to.

i think you may mean height again. 

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47 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Lee Goldberg not buying suppression. He said maybe a 1 in 5 chance of that happening.

I tend to agree with Goldberg. The pattern is not one that is consistent with those in which storms have typically been suppressed in March. Shorter wave lengths mean that teleconnection values that might be conducive to suppression in January or February are not necessarily conducive to suppression in March. The storm could well pass to our south, but the odds that Washington, DC would see more snow than New York City are probably about one-in-three if that high.

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Narrowly missing the blizzard on 3-4-16 was probably the worst. It looked amazing on the satellite passing to our SE.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20160304.html

 

sfcplot_sm_20160304.gif.fc8b31fdff5323bd025b111f049d0406.gif

 

 

3/4, 3/17, and 3/25 were all pretty painful.  What really made them painful was it was death by a 1000 small shifts in the models and actual tracks.  All three started out with substantial snowstorms on the table 3-4 days out (especially 3/4) and they kept trending further and further south and forecast amounts kept trending lower and lower until we got flurries, basically.  

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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I am more or less in the same camp.  I do think suppression is unlikely given the tele's and time of year.  But, at least where I sit, I am not confident that this doesn't just amount to another hodgepodge of plain and white rain.  Interior and elevated people seem most favored here.  Even if they receive less overall precip, they are far more likely to receive a greater proportion of their total in frozen form. 

Could the stars align and prove me wrong?  Yes, and I hope it pans out that way.  But right now, I cannot bring myself to become invested in this one...at least not yet.

Models have surface temps near freezing near the coast. This storm looks colder than the past few storms thanks to the negative epo.

The snow will stick if we get the right track.

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Because of the NAO flip and other factors ’m inclined to think similar along the lines to what Steve D is thinking in that this probably is a PHL north event or it’s not an event at all.  If the pieces come together right this probably goes up the coast.  If not it probably slides OTS and isn’t a big deal for anyone other than the mountains of NC AND VA 

how many systems in this pattern have passed OTS without effecting the tri - state ?

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This storm will be a new test for the models in 2018. So far there haven't been any strong -NAO...50/50...SE Canada  high pressure confluence set ups. So we may have to go back to the drawing board with this event coming up. In the short term, the NAM has generally done very well with these past  events. But we have time to go before the NAM gets within its range.

Yes I agree with your statements, and the NAM is the one model that has shown improvement.

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Still believe that this comes north, I have a hard time buying into a southern slider with a rising NAO, of which many of our large storms have come on the heels of.

This is an extremely complex setup with tons of energy (just take a look at that 500) that the models are having a terribly difficult time sorting out. Expect more run to run jumps even more so than we have seen with other events this year.

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