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The Iceman

March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
The coastal hugger solutions are almost inland runners on the gefs...would easily be all rain for 95 and likely precip issues up to Mt pocono if that happens. A coastal hugger at this time of year is going to have a warm layer shoot all the way to the poconos just like last march. 
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png&key=65c2bae712db3c1d9cc0c21723e697ef25679975092ab707856a8dc29f35c1da
 

That is a crippling snow event verbatim though well N and W and elevated areas. There is your potential March 1958 depiction.

Oh yeah the mean is just about perfect. those 3 members just SE of the mean would be event better though for all of us. Definitely 2 distinct camps still of amped/coastal and suppressed OTS. that still may be on the table like you brought up yesterday. I'm actually pretty surprised how many members in the ensemble runs last night have suppressed looks. definitely lots of changes to come the next 48 hours.

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ensemble families all have a suppressed theme yet their op counterparts are farther N and tucked for the most part. Must be some really sheared/suppressed members skewing the means I would think?

I wonder if the lower resolution of the ensembles has anything to do with that?

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NAM at range is moving the 50/50 out faster, has HP moving into a decent spot but also weakening in part because of lessening confluence as the 50/50 moves out, primary is farther N at 78 vs last run. What I dont like is how we are seeing increased support for the 50/50 moving out and weaker hp to the N as well as a farther N primary. Also noticed the NAM now has a closed vort in the NS so 2 bowling ball features......going to be tough to nail that down until within 48 hrs. What I do like is that there is plenty of cold air to our N waiting to get tapped. So again, we are probably looking at a thump to rain with rd 1 along I95 and pinning hope on followup ull cyclogenesis to hopefully deepen in a great spot and tap that cold to the N. I wouldnt say its a thread the needle for I95 but is alot to ask for in late March. Farther NW areas look golden for now.030c6568de03d8c015863d91e039aa7f.jpg

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ICON is very GFS-esque.....took a big jump North and is warmer with precip falling during the day Tuesday for rd 1. Really not liking the 50/50 moving out faster and also now this rogue bowling ball in the NS amping the flow downstream causing lp to kiss the coast. Again....farther NW and elevation areas look good.

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Hail to the king baby GFS just 1958'd me and more, 1888?
Only down hill from here but an hour to gloat
 
 
VERY strange evolution on the GFS. For now, we take. Until 0z shifts the bullseye up into New England. The surface looks good, 500mb is whacky so Im not sure how the heck the GFS got that look at the surface. Anyway, here:a7f044137727b32a53c584ceab067caa.jpg

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

VERY strange evolution on the GFS. For now, we take. Until 0z shifts the bullseye up into New England. The surface looks good, 500mb is whacky so Im not sure how the heck the GFS got that look at the surface. Anyway, here:a7f044137727b32a53c584ceab067caa.jpg

Like I said give me time to gloat in fantasy epicosity Boston NW burb style! Bow mortals at your new king!

 

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It really sucks when you have mega things to do/obligations and good model runs come out and you want to follow but can't...ugghh!!!

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

VERY strange evolution on the GFS. For now, we take. Until 0z shifts the bullseye up into New England. The surface looks good, 500mb is whacky so Im not sure how the heck the GFS got that look at the surface. Anyway, here:a7f044137727b32a53c584ceab067caa.jpg

strange is putting it lightly. 3 different coastal running up the coast...a lot of that would be white rain but still would be impressive none the less. The N trend though is concerning me as we are still so far out. This could easily be congrats SNE/BOS in 48 hours...

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

strange is putting it lightly. 3 different coastal running up the coast...a lot of that would be white rain but still would be impressive none the less. The N trend though is concerning me as we are still so far out. This could easily be congrats SNE/BOS in 48 hours...

With that 50/50 lobe trying to muck things up, this run should have had 2, maybe 3 waves at the surface. One South (transferring primary) then another hugging the coast as another piece of energy dives into trof, then finally the big show as the ull phases in. They should also have moved sequentially N with each wave as baro got pulled ENE but yet the surface depiction hangs back off the Mid Atl Coast. Just an odd evolution. Not sure we should pin our hopes on one large event or something more drawn out?? 

 

And of course the GGEM comes in suppressed to help clear things up. smh....

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

With that 50/50 lobe trying to muck things up, this run should have had 2, maybe 3 waves at the surface. One South (transferring primary) then another hugging the coast as another piece of energy dives into trof, then finally the big show as the ull phases in. They should also have moved sequentially N with each wave. Just an odd evolution. Not sure we should pin our hopes on one large event or something more drawn out?? 

 

And of course the GGEM comes in suppressed to help clear things up. smh....

We definitely want one large event imo, a long drawn out event, while producing gaudy qpf numbers will likely not feature rates heavy enough for significant accumulation in late march. Even though the GFS showed me gettin 14-15 inches on the clown map, I would forecast 4-6" on the grass and trees because most of that falls during the day. very tough forecast considering by tomorrow we will be in NAM territory. CMC being suppressed doesn't bother me...it routinely is too strong with confluence and high pressure hence its cold bias.

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I don't have the best maps for the UKMET but it looks like it is a solid hit for most of the area and temps are cold enough. Plus it puts a nice little screwzone over the NYC area ;)

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Doctor No just made a return and squashes the system (at least part 1) way South into NC whiffs us. Keeping everything separated as well. Waiting to see what happens with part 2, if anything.

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Sorry if this belongs in the banter thread, and I realize I've been one of the lucky ones this year who got a good amount of snow so it's easy for me to say and probably hard or infuriating for others to hear. But I'm ok with whatever happens (good thing since we have no say in what happens) since we're getting into "late" March. The weenie in me never wishes snow away, so of course I'd take more and I'd love for you NW guys to get significant snow. It's my turn to rain while you rip snow. I grew up in South Jersey, 10 miles SE of Philly, during the 80s and 90s and seemingly ALWAYS heard, "more North and West of the city" on KYW or Action News. However, at this point I'm not sure my tulips and hyacinths can take a heavy snow. They're starting to send up flower heads, and some of the stupider hyacinths have started to bloom. Idiots! Looking to avoid frostbitten/black lilac buds too like I had last year after the sleet storm and subsequent cold snap. "Que sera sera" is my attitude with this one, other than rooting for it to snow "more N and W of the city". 

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^Quick answer...it's way too early to worry about anything. Sunday at the earliest...
Agreed, this wont be resolved until then at the earliest. Not loving the NS trends, but maybe a hiccup.

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The euro went from coastal hugger and furthest NW at 00z to furthest SE at 12z. The euro usually NEVER makes that massive of a change in this time frame in one model run. That is an absurd change from 00z. As of now I have to toss it imo because A. it is a clear outlier ATM and B. it did a complete 180 from 00z. absolutely no consistency.

i no longer have access to the premium euro maps but looking at the free stuff, it looks like there are 2 key differences in the euro and gfs

1. the 50/50 low is much further SW on the Euro than the GFS..they are a solid 75-100 miles apart on that at hour 96. 

2.the euro looks  to be more progressive with the primary low than every other model...red flag imo

Also to me the CMC and Euro look very similar with the 50/50 and blocking in place yet the euro is much further south...wish I could see the 500 mb vort map on the euro. I will still be shocked if this ends up that suppressed in late march without a severely -NAO. I just do not see it. 

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The GEFS and GEPS both look great for the area in both the mean and individuals...big cluster in a good spot off the coast and even more interesting...much much fewer suppressed looks from 06z.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

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Euro is just a straight gut punch. Went from crushing NW areas at 0z to jackpotting Cape May with mood flakes at 12z. I wouldnt be as concerned if the individual eps members werent nearly all unanimous misses to the South as well.53c312d4f40b4195afc625a9cef25cc2.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is just a straight gut punch. Went from crushing NW areas at 0z to jackpotting Cape May with mood flakes at 12z. I wouldnt be as concerned if the individual eps members werent nearly all unanimous misses to the South as well.53c312d4f40b4195afc625a9cef25cc2.jpg

First thoughts a couple days ago were southern Virginia i hate when i do things like that :yikes:

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Not panicking yet until other guidance folds to it. Not taking a model seriously that has swung 500 miles from one run to the next, an outlier in each direction. Something tells me it's out to lunch.

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18z GFS takes a different twist.....hits us with a solid thump from wave 1 of mostly all snow in SE PA, then has 3 more strung out followup waves move by off the coast that drop some very light snow in SE PA but more in NJ as boundary is S and E. 500mb setup suggest less strung out so we'll see about it, Im not sold at all on the surface depiction. In a nutshell GFS puts most of the eggs in the 1st wave with the followup stuff being signaled as more suppressed. Another run, more questions than answers.

 

 

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