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The Iceman

March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Pretty sad when she is the chief Met but Glenn comes on first w/HIS map/totals....

Even sadder that Glenn was demoted, yet he is the one with the BSc in Meteorology (not just a TV Met).

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4 minutes ago, shemATC said:

At hour 30, with mostly sleet predicted it has 12" already!  obviously not all snow (1.5" qpf in 10 hours), but WOW   :mapsnow:

No question in my mind this thing will have some unexpected "twist". Possisble thundersnow/sleet? ( Jim Cantore- )

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Winter Storm Watch up here from tomorrow evening through Wednesday evening for 5-8" of snow w/localized amounts of 12" along with ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.

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Just now, CRB said:

Even sadder that Glenn was demoted, yet he is the one with a real BSc in Meteorology (not just a TV Met).

He wasn't demoted but he could no longer broadcast the 11pm broadcast...hence, Tammie was named chief Met because he wasn't available. However, it's obvious Glenn is still chief Met overall...

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Digital fantasy map from this NAM is going to be a Van Gogh 

 

The funny thing is, I'm a little disappointed in the snow amounts I'm seeing for wave 2 considering Wave 1 got to 12" all on it's own.  :axe:

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Yeah, I think this might have a lot of people in some trouble if this happens.  Even if you disregard the actual snow totals, that's 3" of qpf for the whole storm.  Even if you shave 1/3 off of that of liquid, 2" is still going to rack up a lot of problems of some precipitation type.  Wonder if it's too late to go buy a generator...

namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

namconus_apcpn_neus_19.png

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Just now, ChescoPaWxman said:

The 18z NAM is garbage....do not buy into it....lots O' white rain after the IP....use 10:1 at your own peril - much closer to reality is 6:1

It's a weenie map I know.  

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2 minutes ago, shemATC said:

The map does jackpot Monmouth with a little speck of 24" of snow, so maybe it is right. :thumbsup:

:snowing:

 

only cause I said this for storms 1 2 and 3

snow magnets full power.....:snowman:

 

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This is ALL sleet and/or white rain for the first thump Tuesday:

namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

This is then the final storm total:

namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

For those NW of 95, eliminating the first batch of sleet would yield totals of 5-8" of snow on a 10-1 ratio. Most of that snow falls during the daytime on Wednesday. So if you take into account a ratio probably closer to 8:1 (Unless banding is present) and a late March sun, we could be looking at no where near the 18" that the NAM just printed out.

HOWEVER, this is all going based on an off-hour NAM run for crying out loud. As always, follow the NWS for the best forecasts and use the models as a piece of guidance.

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

This is ALL sleet and/or white rain for the first thump Tuesday:

namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

This is then the final storm total:

namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

For those NW of 95, eliminating the first batch of sleet would yield totals of 5-8" of snow on a 10-1 ratio. Most of that snow falls during the daytime on Wednesday. So if you take into account a ratio probably closer to 8:1 (Unless banding is present) and a late March sun, we could be looking at no where near the 18" that the NAM just printed out.

HOWEVER, this is all going based on an off-hour NAM run for crying out loud. As always, follow the NWS for the best forecasts and use the models as a piece of guidance.

Thanks Dad ;)

 

  • Haha 1

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The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down.  I'm wondering if this storm would be similar.  

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50 minutes ago, wkd said:

The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down.  I'm wondering if this storm would be similar.  

What I recall was heavy snow becoming very heavy and getting pretty windy until early afternoon - all below freezing with about 10 or 11" of snow, then changing to heavy sleet for about 3 hours. Then it pretty much tapered off by sunset. The trees never had much on them due to the temps and then the wind. (This was in NW Delco btw).

Very different scenario this time - although I can imagine dodging a bullet here if tomorrow is light to moderate snow and/or sleet, or even rain, with temps in the mid 30's. I wouldn't think so much would accumulate on trees and wires before falling off, maybe something similar tomorrow night? Then snow Wednesday with temps falling to or below freezing. Like a wet and warm part 1 and a colder snowy part 2, with maybe even decent rates.

There are a few other scenarios, and it's kind of wild that both halves of this event are still up in the air (down this way anyway).

What I'm rooting for at this point is maximum snowfall, however it gets here. :snowing:

Eta: meant to say maybe even decent ratios for Wednesday, but yeah.

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33 minutes ago, wkd said:

The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down.  I'm wondering if this storm would be similar.  

We lost power in Hoboken on that one. 

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56 minutes ago, wkd said:

The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down.  I'm wondering if this storm would be similar.  

I grew up outside of Wilkes-Barre. We had around 30 inches of snow IMBY, and around an average of 5-6 foot drifts. Wind peaked at around 50mph with gusts over 70mph. It snowed like crazy, then, about 2 hours of sleet, followed by 10-12 more inches of snow. You could see grass in some parts of MBY, so, I opened the front door (which had an 8 foot snow drift) and, the snow came piling in! Crazy storm and blizzard. It is my benchmark for snow storms and it got awful cold after the storm left.

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12 minutes ago, wkd said:

The 5:23 Mount Holly discussion is an excellent read. We're really fortunate to have such an excellent NWS office.

yes and it was a team effort!!

:mapsnow:

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yes and it was a team effort!!

:mapsnow:

Their 9pm disco makes mention of the nam and gfs to cut back the 2nd wave qpf quite a bit and focus more on Round one tomorrow suggesting some may be in for a surprise. Would it be something if tomorrow became the big show instead? I really don't think anyone knows how this is going to go down and that isn't a knock on Mt Holly whatsoever but more a function of how complicated of a setup this is. Nothing is a lock with this one bottom line.

 

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