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March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat


The Iceman

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1 minute ago, wkd said:

That is 24hr. snowfall not accumulation.  I share your enthusiasm with this event but I think haswoper is being more realistic with his numbers.

ok here's a 6 hour snowfall where the majority of the precip of this storm falls..11" falling over 6 hours isn't going to have trouble sticking...

 

sn10_006h.us_ne.png

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big area of 18" in 12 hours in storm 2 over burlington co...

sn10_012h.us_ne.png

 

I think some are seeing 30 hour storm and thinking it is going to be a uniform rate of snow during the entire storm... ignore all of wave 1 which only artificially inflates totals by a few inches anyway... 18" of snow falling in 12 hours is not going to have any issues accumulating and it is that part of the storm which the 1 foot+ potential totals are coming from... a foot of heavy wet snow has far more impact than 2 ft of powder.

 

 

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Just now, wkd said:

Iceman, I definitely hope you are right.  I'm mostly basing my thoughts on the last two storms here. I had a lot of melting initially and compaction during the storms. The storm before last I had 1.75" accumulation with an all day snow.  Also I'm a little on edge after losing power for 5 days.

I was in the same boat and this storm will likely be very similar to the one where we got nailed with hours of thundersnow. It's technically a 30 hour event but anything that falls before the main show moves in is a bonus. The main part of the precip falls in 6 hours like the storm a few weeks ago. I won't be surprised at all if I have nothing on the ground heading into storm 2...I'm actually predicting that. But storm 2 delivering 12" potentially in 6 hours is what the event is to me. That has devastating potential.

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

This is pretty nutty for this time in March....even more crazy/mind numbing, It may be "snow on snow on snow" still have stuff hanging around here...and it 's F'en March!

nuts.jpg

Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter.  Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation.  Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes.  Sun these days is in total torch mode.

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

big area of 18" in 12 hours in storm 2 over burlington co...

sn10_012h.us_ne.png

 

I think some are seeing 30 hour storm and thinking it is going to be a uniform rate of snow during the entire storm... ignore all of wave 1 which only artificially inflates totals by a few inches anyway... 18" of snow falling in 12 hours is not going to have any issues accumulating and it is that part of the storm which the 1 foot+ potential totals are coming from... a foot of heavy wet snow has far more impact than 2 ft of powder.

Wave 1 is a joke..it's wave 2 plastering people. And add any sort of wind 30-35mph+...

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17 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter.  Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation.  Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes.  Sun these days is in total torch mode.

Yup just not our year, is like to think different but you can't deny the trends lately

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28 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter.  Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation.  Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes.  Sun these days is in total torch mode.

Yep, I believe in this completely. I swear if I had no shirt on today, I would get "color"...and 2 weeks from now w/trout fishing season starting I'd definitely would get fried a bit ("farmers tan")...it's happened. Anyhow, this is fun...all I want to do is postpone Summer because it sucks besides some thunder bangers (late night preferably) BTW, next Sat-Sun looks like an "event"...SECS? Kidding. I don't know... 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Now if the storm unfolds similar to the CMC then it will likely be an underwhelming event for most as it never really brings that massive CCB like the GFS...it's a more uniform 30 hour event...lots of white rain in that scenario...would be like 3-6" imo 

Confidence level on this?

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