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March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat


The Iceman

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Just now, Jsdphilly said:

For some reason I still think these readings are a bit much. Seems like everything has to come together perfectly (not unreasonable for a March 20). If this thing does not time up perfectly or sets up even 50 miles off where it is, totals are going to be very different. I just cant imagine a foot, but I am starting to think it is just to protect me from disappointment. 

The lowest qpf that any model gives you is like 1.25" LE. That is still 6" on a 5:1 ratio. The NAM gives you 2" LE....that would be a foot at 5:1 ratios. 5:1 really would be just about worse case scenario other than a complete sleet storm. Even that would still give you a 6" storm. I don't know about you but I'd take a warning level snow in late march any day of the week. 

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11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The lowest qpf that any model gives you is like 1.25" LE. That is still 6" on a 5:1 ratio. The NAM gives you 2" LE....that would be a foot at 5:1 ratios. 5:1 really would be just about worse case scenario other than a complete sleet storm. Even that would still give you a 6" storm. I don't know about you but I'd take a warning level snow in late march any day of the week. 

LOL, thats how I am reading it also. For some reason though, I just feel like its not gonna accumulate on the roads. Don't get me wrong, I am really starting to get there with my head. Its just my gut and me heart are telling me: late march, afternoon snow storm, not freezing cold before...snow on grass, not so much on roads. But my head is telling me, banding is looking like it could set up right over me and we end up with a solid 10. Either way, this is all a bonus at this point!

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Just now, Jsdphilly said:

LOL, thats how I am reading it also. For some reason though, I just feel like its not gonna accumulate on the roads. Don't get me wrong, I am really starting to get there with my head. Its just my gut and me heart are telling me: late march, afternoon snow storm, not freezing cold before...snow on grass, not so much on roads. But my head is telling me, banding is looking like it could set up right over me and we end up with a solid 10. Either way, this is all a bonus at this point!

LOL don't worry I feel ya on that. After last March where I got 5" of a predicted 16-24", I swore that I would never get invested in a March storm after the 10th every again... But here I am  :poster_stupid:

 

I'm feeling good about this one though since no models soundings are even close to hinting at sleet tomorrow. My forecast is 10-14" but my expectations are 6" which is even less than Mt Hollys Low end map gives me. Gets me to 40" on the year. Learned hard last year expectations have to be tempered in late March events, just appreciate whatever falls and be happy there was something to track this late in the season. This way I'm going to be happy even if we under perform and ecstatic if we meet or exceed expectations. The evolution of this tonight should be fun to watch as a weather hobbyist regardless of what happens imby. I do hope this is the late March storm we can tell our kids and grandkids about though like 1958 was for my Grandpop. Another positive thing is that we can't get too much better of a look at 500 MB for this time of year. There isn't a lot going against this storm other than climo which is a good thing.

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

LOL don't worry I feel ya on that. After last March where I got 5" of a predicted 16-24", I swore that I would never get invested in a March storm after the 10th every again... But here I am  :poster_stupid:

 

I'm feeling good about this one though since no models soundings are even close to hinting at sleet tomorrow. My forecast is 10-14" but my expectations are 6" which is even less than Mt Hollys Low end map gives me. Gets me to 40" on the year. Learned hard last year expectations have to be tempered in late March events, just appreciate whatever falls and be happy there was something to track this late in the season. This way I'm going to be happy even if we under perform and ecstatic if we meet or exceed expectations. The evolution of this tonight should be fun to watch as a weather hobbyist regardless of what happens imby. I do hope this is the late March storm we can tell our kids and grandkids about though like 1958 was for my Grandpop. Another positive thing is that we can't get too much better of a look at 500 MB for this time of year. There isn't a lot going against this storm other than climo which is a good thing.

Looking through my Kocin book I find that there have been a few notable storms in March. There were a few in the late 1800's, most notable the "Blizzard of 88" then there was the 1958 Morgantown special and the 1960 storm that all but wiped out LBI. So March can produce despite the sun angle.

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Final Call Map...this is Mt holly centric so may be off towards NYC and Baltimore. I do think we will see 20" lolli's somewhere and my best guess would be the Lambertville/New Hope area. Sorry for the amateur quality but then again I'm an amateur. 

 

finalcall320.PNG.64c215dc858a5c08478e52a82f5a2dcf.PNG

Good map - your maps lines are getting smoother! The north side may need some flattening due to the dry air, not sure. Haven't heard from Voyager in a bit (saw he was on the road for a while).

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5 minutes ago, bluehens said:

We need to get of this sleet quickly. Looks like maybe that is why totals are much lower on NAM. We need a quicker transition to snow. Coastal low needs to get cranking. 

Nope, the NAM sends 700mb 100 miles further nw than any other model and it dry slots us which is why totals are lower..it was always suppose to sleet this way until 2-3 am. Basically the NAM is just full of **** just like it was full of **** this morning with round 1.

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