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March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat

The Iceman

By The Iceman,
in Philadelphia Region

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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Just now, mattinpa said:

Not familiar with that storm. Does it hit us hard too? 

Has the all time record for snowfall in state history with 60" and all time snow record for SE PA with 50" in Morgantown. widespread 20-30" for the N and W suburbs 10-20" over 95. Snowed for like 3 days straight in places lol

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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gfs-ens_z500a_us_29.png&key=22cadab55b015bc6252a5ddc52ef9ed927871d9e33368ef376155227033cf517
 
I think this is an improved look at 12z on the GEFS from the 00z GEFS. Notice the lowest heights are south of us as opposed to overtop of us at 00z. I believe ralph said in another thread that we would want that more in S VA/NC...Is that right [mention=4298]Ralph Wiggum[/mention] ? If so this was a good development at least H5 wise.


Yes, like this:0286ef18f5b189a6c82275db456ebe8d.jpg
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mattinpa

mattinpa

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Has the all time record for snowfall in state history with 60" and all time snow record for SE PA with 50" in Morgantown. widespread 20-30" for the N and W suburbs 10-20" over 95. Snowed for like 3 days straight in places lol

Cool, thanks again. I learn a lot here. 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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We've seen great trends today across guidance showing a look that we can score with despite it being late march. But it is the Euro that is what is pushing me all in here. Even though it doesn't hit us directly, it is honestly in a position I'd prefer at day 5 with a breaking down -NAO. I would be surprised if suppression is how we lose. But the 12z Euro 50-75 miles further north is essentially the March 58 storm, a long duration heavy wet snow event where N and W gets clobbered and 95 sees a significant event. Now I am not thinking this will see anywhere near the totals seen in that 58 storm but that the potential ripe for a long duration precipitation event. It's still too early for details but I think we go out here with a classic NAO rebound event to end our snow season. I know Ralph is at the station.. but with this likely being our last shot at seeing a significant snowstorm this year, I am firing up the steam engines for this one so ALL ABOARD!!  this train has no brakes :lol:

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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We've seen great trends today across guidance showing a look that we can score with despite it being late march. But it is the Euro that is what is pushing me all in here. Even though it doesn't hit us directly, it is honestly in a position I'd prefer at day 5 with a breaking down -NAO. I would be surprised if suppression is how we lose. But the 12z Euro 50-75 miles further north is essentially the March 58 storm, a long duration heavy wet snow event where N and W gets clobbered and 95 sees a significant event. Now I am not thinking this will see anywhere near the totals seen in that 58 storm but that the potential ripe for a long duration precipitation event. It's still too early for details but I think we go out here with a classic NAO rebound event to end our snow season. I know Ralph is at the station.. but with this likely being our last shot at seeing a significant snowstorm this year, I am firing up the steam engines for this one so ALL ABOARD!!  this train has no brakes
Archambault ftw!!!!!
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Voyager

Voyager

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23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yep, that's a new one in my book. Never heard of him...

Bernie is an AccuWeather met who was born and raised in Beaver Meadows (Hazleton) PA. Given his roots, I do believe he has an understanding of the area climatology to be trusted. Like any other met, he can and does bust, but he seems to know his stuff, and isn't big on hype like some of the others at AW.

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JTA66

JTA66

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I like Bernie, he's a good met. Doesn't get enough mention on these boards ... that's probably a good thing.

Getting back to next week's storm -- I recall a system, maybe March 91? It snowed for something like 3 days straight, but didn't amount to anything because rates were never heavy enough to overcome the March sun. I wonder if this ends up being a similar long duration, strung out system?

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JTA66

JTA66

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25 minutes ago, GreenVoodooWX said:

I am a newbie on here and I was wondering what Archambault Event means; as well as the EE Rule? Appreciate the knowledge! 

EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true.

Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.)

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

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21 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true.

Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.)

Dr. Heather Archambault - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/

A copy of her paper is here - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1

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Birds~69

Birds~69

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30 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I like Bernie, he's a good met. Doesn't get enough mention on these boards ... that's probably a good thing.

Getting back to next week's storm -- I recall a system, maybe March 91? It snowed for something like 3 days straight, but didn't amount to anything because rates were never heavy enough to overcome the March sun. I wonder if this ends up being a similar long duration, strung out system?

Days, most likely just grass/non paved unless intensity builds. It will probably melt even on the grass while it's snowing as well during the day. Nights, better chance of stickage.

I keeping my expectations in check. I'll be happy w/a couple inches of plastered lawns/trees/power lines (scenic) and maybe a slushy "something" on paved surfaces.

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true.
Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.)
Not sure about her first name but otherwise spot on. Archambault is characterized by a "suppressed" system (thanks to neg nao blocking) which slowly crawls the coastline as the nao block rapidly (relatively speaking) breaks down and flips subsequently to positive. So when timed properly you can get a nice system to develop around say just inside Hatteras then slooooowly meander N/NNE hitting areas with a slow moving noreaster.
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