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Spring/Summer 2018 Observations


Carvers Gap
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Rain has picked-up in coverage and intensity during the past hour.  Very thankful for that.  It is never a good sign when one is hoping for rain during spring.  That said, we may be in the middle of a pattern shift to a wetter scenario.  Tough to tell if it is the same pattern which will now yield different precip results as summer sets-in OR if it is a new one w return flow from the GOM.  A normal summer(maybe slightly above for temps and precip) pattern appears to be on tap which is fine with me in regards to temps and precip.  @nrgjeff, what do you think?  Edit...sorry, I should have placed that last question in the pattern discussion thread!

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We'll make it work, lol. I do have an ob. CHA airport only reported a quarter inch Tuesday. MBY had at least a half if not 3/4 inch. No precise gauge but the standing water lines up with .50+.

I think the height weakness in the Southeast is a combo of the old (main) winter pattern and Gulf influences.  That secondary ridge winter pattern may visit at times, but I think not often or for long. Two main pieces of evidence point me to the near seasonable summer. First the SOI and AAM are going in an El Nino direction. The split flow across NA is more evidence. Second, water keeps getting warmer off the Pac NW coast; could be correlation more than causation. Either way it's a not hot signal here. While we may fail to get nice fronts I don't see a scorcher. 

I'm looking for a slightly warmer than normal summer, most of that in June. Kind of humid, but what's new. July/Aug closer to normal, but that's still mighty warm. Adequate or better rain. Believe we just came out of the dry part of the old pattern. The rainier shift may hold.

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  • 2 weeks later...

You know when SSWs happen during the winter...often those winters will flip to spring(often ending early and never looking back).  Winter weather and temps lasted into mid-April here and then....bam - summer!  We went very warm after that.   My garden looks like a jungle.  I am afraid w the humidity that disease won't be far behind.  Might need to post a question in the garden thread come to think of it.....Now, the Euro Weeklies do show a "moderating trend" during July.  We will see if that continues to hold during tonight's run.  They would imply normal to slightly BN temps for the eastern half of the forum area.  Now, as Jeff points out, normal temps in July are still hot though.

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South of Bristol near S. Holston River. Just passed 4" of rainfall since last Saturday. Ground is definitely saturated. Any significant rainfall this afternoon through tomorrow probably results in flooding. Creek flow adjacent to property is at max capacity. Training cells have shifted just barely to my west right now after getting around an inch last hour.
1c5231dd52ffa4cc2b41b961f27f57d9.gif

Edit: Here is a good website for extracting rain gauge data around the Tennessee Valley.

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Exciting storm action in Fourth and Gill and Old North Knox neighboorhoods this PM:

https://imgur.com/a/Eokwo2Z

Timed PM/ lunch people watching on Gay Street in downtown Knoxville just right to see people scramble from the rain. The last umph the storm had brought the wind with the front. Maybe some mid level dry air? Even under an awning I got a little soaked when the wind kicked up. A bottle of Sake helped. 

 

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Some of you guys in the east have seen some good rains  by the looks the last 30-days,maybe more towards the TN and NC line.I'm trying to figure out what's going on with my lawn.I'm starting to get brown patches i even turned on my sprinkler system in the late afternoon the past week and it seems to be getting worse,no clue.:(

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map   Southeast Regional Climate Center.png

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33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Was watching the satellite and hoping for a t-storm cool down and noticed a nice little spin helping pull some of these storms off the mountains:

https://imgur.com/Q5rDzKx 

We've had some nice cells the last couple days here,but they've missed our house :(Really need some rain for my lawn.Drove through a nice burst this afternoon after my daughters dance class,knocked out some small branches,election signs were thrown everywhere and even saw a line down on Nolensville Pk

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Some great pictures in this thread!

I've been terribly unlucky with afternoon/evening storms this season.  They have been moving all around me, sometimes literally within a mile or two, giving me the cool air and breeze but no rain.  I've been watering every other day.  The red clay where only grass is trying to grow has been cracked for weeks.  Having said that, I got very lucky last night when a cell formed right on top of me.  A nice moderate shower that lasted 20 minutes or so.  I'll take what I can get!

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Greater coverage of rain Wed-Fri looks believable now. This thread I only care about QPF. My severe thoughts are in that thread. My grass needs 1.5+ inches of rain. Decent shot at it. I'm banking on the lower 1" threshold or it's gone until Sept.

Obs question for East Hamilton County (Chattanooga area). Anybody get hail Tuesday evening? I saw a white-ish shaft of precip. Could have been sun on a rain shaft. Maybe hail? Dry IMBY though.

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