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John1122

Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

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Wonder if the Euro Weeklies are a blip...they are fairly at odds w the 12z ensemble(I realized they are founded from 0z)?  MUCH cooler in the northwest over the next couple of weeks compared to the 12z ensembles...warmer overall in the East.  Fits w Jeff's analysis that the Nina is hard to shake right now.  It might have jumped the gun a tad on the Nino w previous runs...Like Jeff, I do think the atmosphere will eventually get there.  If we are going to have a decent winter...it needs to get hopping.  But hey, looking like a really good call from Jeff.

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23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wonder if the Euro Weeklies are a blip...they are fairly at odds w the 12z ensemble(I realized they are founded from 0z)?  MUCH cooler in the northwest over the next couple of weeks compared to the 12z ensembles...warmer overall in the East.  Fits w Jeff's analysis that the Nina is hard to shake right now.  It might have jumped the gun a tad on the Nino w previous runs...Like Jeff, I do think the atmosphere will eventually get there.  If we are going to have a decent winter...it needs to get hopping.  But hey, looking like a really good call from Jeff.

Like what the Weeklies show  just past the mid month.Looks like a big warm up.The HP that the Euro has been showing which would have been over Japan which potentially would have re-curved Maria in the Yellow Sea is now being shown much further west bringing Maria into China.With Maria now going into China this will form a ridge(pump up heights) into Korea,Yellow Sea.With the MJO now being shown stronger than most recent days getting out of the COD into 4 now the next couple days,the recent rise in the SOI in the past few days.Believe there are good signals for a good hot spell upcoming.

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I dunno,looks like the LR models are to cool to me right now,teleconnections look warm to me into past mid month.Maria is going into China pumping up the heights with though a trough into Mongolia.If you wanna believe the SOI it tanked recently but today took a good spike upwards the last couple days SO this should just be some transient warming spell.But i still believe right now we are headed to some of the warmest temps we've seen all season upcoming.Even the potential big drop in the PNA upcoming would scream HP or ridging for the Valley.Still like what the weeklies last run shows.It's summer time anyways,we do have warm ups..lol

 

7 Jul 2018 1012.36 1011.50 -0.55 -7.36 -2.35
6 Jul 2018 1010.11 1011.90 -16.87 -7.63 -2.24
5 Jul 2018 1009.71 1012.35 -22.10 -6.96 -1.86
4 Jul 2018 1010.04 1012.55 -21.30 -6.18 -1.39
3 Jul 2018 1012.25 1012.75 -8.93 -5.77 -0.92
2 Jul 2018 1014.30 1013.05 1.85 -5.97 -0.63
1 Jul 2018 1015.04 1012.60 9.17 -6.18 -0.37

pna sprd2 gif  618×800 .png

3.png

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DT WxRisk posted an interesting NASA soil moisture graphic on his Twitter account. Basically, as hot as this summer has been, it could be a lot worse for most of TN (i.e. 2007, 2012) if not for the above average soil moisture and the evaporative cooling going on at the surface as a result. The UL disturbances flanking weaknesses on our side of the ridge axis + soil moisture content has helped keep temps in reasonable territory as opposed to record territory. The BNA CF6's look bad...but when you get outside the UHI and factor in the uptick in cloud shade, this summer's heat bark as been greater than its bite IMHO.

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21 hours ago, *Flash* said:

DT WxRisk posted an interesting NASA soil moisture graphic on his Twitter account. Basically, as hot as this summer has been, it could be a lot worse for most of TN (i.e. 2007, 2012) if not for the above average soil moisture and the evaporative cooling going on at the surface as a result. The UL disturbances flanking weaknesses on our side of the ridge axis + soil moisture content has helped keep temps in reasonable territory as opposed to record territory. The BNA CF6's look bad...but when you get outside the UHI and factor in the uptick in cloud shade, this summer's heat bark as been greater than its bite IMHO.

Parts of the Valley are in a abnormal drought,nothing horrible but abnormal.Some areas especially in our eastern Valley has done quite well with rain.We got our best rains here from the frontal passage recently,believe we got around .50 ".

Euro got warmer last run.Shows a 594dm next Sunday,the savior for Sunday would be low DP 63 with temps 98 for BNA.But,following Sunday the DP's rise and potentially upper 90's with DP hovering into the low 70's,potentially heat advisory criteria.

 

The GEFS shows the next several days the jet up into Mongolia and China with HP over S/Japan,Korea,Yellow Sea,China ,then next weekend or that following Monday HP goes into China.If we don't get lucky enough in the long range to get a frontal passage into the Valley,which it's summer seems possible it won't, we potentially could see a longer warm up.JMO

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:sun:

National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite a bit of cloud cover has stymied temperatures this afternoon.
I don`t believe anyone will reach 90 degrees by the end of the day.
These "cooler" temperatures are making for a bearable day outside. I
also think these sub-90 degree temperatures are keeping convection
at bay, but we are finally seeing a couple of pinhead showers
starting to poke through on radar.  A few showers and thunderstorms
are still likely to wet some spots in Middle TN, but coverage is
going to be limited before the sun goes down.

With basically a rinse-and-repeat summertime forecast for this
package, there are a couple of things that stand out.  First, I`ll
keep mainly a 20-30 PoP each afternoon, but Tuesday may see a little
more coverage as a very weak boundary should push in from the north.
I`ll cap things at 50 PoP for now, but Tuesday does look like the
best shot for more than just scattered thunderstorms. Even with the
increased chances, no shear means convection should remain sub-
severe.

Secondly, the upper ridge over the Great Plains will begin to push
eastward starting Wednesday.  Centered over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by the end of the workweek and characterized by daytime
highs increasing each day, Friday should be the warmest of the week.
Mid-90s are looking possible for many with small diurnal
thunderstorm chances, so if you like these "cooler" temperatures
we`re seeing today through Tuesday, get out and enjoy them.  The
heat is coming back by the end of the week.

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We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 

Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.

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We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 
Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.
Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?

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Interesting to see the LR stuff after d7...seems like the Euro really wants to dump "cooler" air into the lee of the northern Rockies while he CMC and GFS push that air substantially further SE.  Not sure what the bias is...but seems the CMC/GFS combo may offer some hope in 8-10 days for a break in the heat.  Right now, pretty easy call is seasonal to just AN...beginning in about 8-10 days.  For now...HOT!

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The last several runs of the GFS have shown temps at or near 100 degrees here for Friday.  MRX is going with 90.  That's a pretty significant difference.  Be interesting to see how hot we get.

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Thankfully I do not think so. More good news next week looks a touch less insane too.

On 7/9/2018 at 2:06 PM, Windspeed said:
On 7/9/2018 at 8:44 AM, nrgjeff said:
We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 
Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.

Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?

 

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3 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

The last several runs of the GFS have shown temps at or near 100 degrees here for Friday.  MRX is going with 90.  That's a pretty significant difference.  Be interesting to see how hot we get.

The GFS definitely has a warm bias when you look at it's temp outputs lately. It's had quote a number of days at 98-101 in the region so far this summer and it seems to run 5-7 degrees too high normally.

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GFS MOS has been more sane than the 2m temps. Now in the heart of summer I trust MOS more. I prefer 2m in changing weather (a real front unlike today) or a significant MCS in the summer. If MOS starts getting beat by 2m, then of course check the latter.

Well this is the mid-range. Still looks like temperatures will ease up a bit around July 20, esp July 23. Might be able to pull off a bearable stretch from then until early August. At that point I can deal with one last push of heat. In August we know fall and football are approaching. Just hope late July verifies. 

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I've been going to 7 on 7 events already. I love football and the weather that comes with it. I know we have long stretches of heat, often high heat this time of year and beyond, but it seems easier to deal with after July 4th, if nothing else because the days are getting shorter and shorter was we head into August.

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It's looking like the the upper ridge breaks down  a day sooner than what was being shown in earlier runs ,into Sat.The Euro and GFS  both have  a shortwave trough this afternoon for Monday but the Euro looks slightly slower than the GFS.Should see some potential strong storms Monday afternoon and if the Euro were to be right into the evening and early morning hours,for some parts.Mesoscales seem sketchy at this point

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Looks like a wash rinse and repeat pattern but some decent signs of even a warmer period into the 1st week of August,it is summer tho and August is hot.But the SOI the last couple days has really warmed up into a more Nina pattern of +13.85 today,this is a rise of around 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies shows even hotter temps with the 850mb of 25c expanding more into the Valley before once again getting batted back down by an Upper level trough.Wouldn't surprise me if it's not right and later on the next few days you see the MJO going back into the COD.Just my speculation and is no forecast.

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I agree we'll get another bout of heat and humidity (AN temps) the first of August. Even the late July break does not look like a big break. However it's still there and with more precip. After the early August round of heat, we should be ready to count down to easier temps and football.

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On 7/13/2018 at 8:42 AM, nrgjeff said:

I agree we'll get another bout of heat and humidity (AN temps) the first of August. Even the late July break does not look like a big break. However it's still there and with more precip. After the early August round of heat, we should be ready to count down to easier temps and football.

I'm ready for football.Your baseball team is having a bad year and the Braves who were playing good are going through a mid season melt down :(

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