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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.


Ji

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39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You do?  I don't.  I mean, we are on a weather board though so I figured it was prudent to discuss a weather model.

It is prudent. The NAM has value but my point was i want to see if the other models trend toward it or if it is on an island.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Wave one is a total bust on gfs. Too weak to really do much for anyone. But I see definite improvement with wave 2. More ridging in front. Vort 2/3 more in tandem. More amplified. It might not get it done but it's an improvement at 72. 

Whoops, forgot to brush the dust off the supercomputer. A little interference, but that's all.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

You used an exclamation point...which means you feel a little better about things overall! Lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So what, are we back to rootin' for wave 2? Eh, as Bob said...marry no solution until at LEAST 72 hours (given this setup, might wanna wait til Monday, lol)

I’m not. Wave one and 4-8 would be awesome. Hoping for the second and whiffing on both would suck. And we’ve lost big time in similar setups. 

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