I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[ErinInTheSky]

Strong front end thump with the Euro, and second wave is back. Now will it track through VA or come north is the question.

[Maestrobjwa]

It's ticked north overall, hasn't it?

[ErinInTheSky]

Second wave. SO close.... C'mon, next frame.

 

[clskinsfan]

Euro is beautiful at 72. We are all getting raked pretty good. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, supernovasky said:

Second wave. SO close.... C'mon, next frame.

 

It's not going to happen with the H5 I'm seeing at 96

[showmethesnow]

Doesn't get it done this run but I thought we saw some pretty good improvements at 500 for our possible second wave.

[ErinInTheSky]

Euro through 102.

 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Strong front end thump with the Euro, and second wave is back. Now will it track through VA or come north is the question.

[ErinInTheSky]

Totals jumped 2-3" for anyone in and around the cities on the Euro. It's good movement in our direction.

[Cobalt]

Precip:

[ErinInTheSky]

Euro gives us a lot of room for the 3" fail zone too. 

 

I love this run. I'm betting the EPS looks great.

[Superstorm]

Overall good run. Wiggle room for DC on both sides. How do temps look?


.

[showmethesnow]

Saw enough on the Euro to keep me invested in another days worth of runs for the possible big daddy coastal. As far as the initial (first storm) it looks good for for DC through Balt as long as temps cooperate which might be a touch iffy regardless of what the snowfall maps are showing.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Overall good run. Wiggle room for DC on both sides. How do temps look?


.

Looks good to me. Maybe a little warm on the surface but the 850s stay under freezing the whole time.

[CAPE]

Interesting run. 850s marginal esp SE of I-95. It will take the heavy precip/rates the Euro is depicting to produce snow in my yard. If it ends up light, forget it, it will be mostly sleet/rain. 

Not sure the second wave is going to end up that suppressed. Its possible, but it will be really interesting to watch this evolve.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I know "out here" you guys are good.  As the Governor of the Urban areas, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift south.  We may have to put our eggs into the front run thump at this point.

 

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Second system on the NAM might be ready to do business tho

That's why I'm disappointed about wave 2 trending flat. Wave 1 isn't going to make us all happy. I win with the NAM but then D.C. South rains. If DC south gets 6"+ from it I'm probably fringed up here like the icon and gfs. Wave 2 could be a full region win. 

You also not wrong the nam was about to get us all with wave 2. But that's because wave 1 was stronger. It was essentially showing the global idea from 24 hours ago. Unfortunately it's likely just the nam over amped at range bias. 

[87storms]

looks pretty good for march 20th as far as i'm concerned.  we just need that secondary low along the coast to form further north.  not sure what would allow that other than timing and location of the NS.

[Amped]

Only way to get a hit from the second system is if there's a lot more ridging ahead of it, which will probably bring the first storm north.  The troff isn't going to Amplify far enough west to hook anything back into the coast, once the front gets south, it's over.

[87storms]

10 days from April.  we take this (if it's actually snow) and we call it a winter. lol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That's why I'm disappointed about wave 2 trending flat. Wave 1 isn't going to make us all happy. I win with the NAM but then D.C. South rains. If DC south gets 6"+ from it I'm probably fringed up here like the icon and gfs. Wave 2 could be a full region win. 

You also not wrong the nam was about to get us all with wave 2. But that's because wave 1 was stronger. It was essentially showing the global idea from 24 hours ago. Unfortunately it's likely just the nam over amped at range bias. 

You really don't think we have much chance with wave 2, huh?...

[WVclimo]

My yard just went from 0.00” to 0.50”+ on this run of the Euro.  Hoping for one more shift north aa we close to get into the really heavy stuff.

 

[WxUSAF]

5-6” Kuchera? Lock it the f*ck up.

[clskinsfan]

It is definitely toasty at the surface before the precip gets rolling. Even out this way it is in the mid 30's at onset. 850's are good at the start on a line including Frederick county, VA, Clarke, Loudoun, the northern half of Faifax county and DC. Everything north of there is good at 850. South of that line is sketchy. It is a little early to be worrying about temps. But that is what the model shows verbatim.

[87storms]

i'm assuming the cutoff to the north is probably a mix of confluence and having a nice high building in from the lakes.  that helps the dc crew, but i'm assuming that puts southern PA on the watchlist.  weaken the north, and/or strengthen the sourthern vort and i'm assuming they're in the game.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Only way to get a hit from the second system is if there's a lot more ridging ahead of it, which will probably bring the first storm north.  The troff isn't going to Amplify far enough west to hook anything back into the coast, once the front gets south, it's over.

Yeah you might be right here. I am not sure what to root for lol. If the first wave is stronger/takes a "good" track, I might very well still end up mostly rain, and then completely miss on the second wave. Good news is, I have zero say in how this transpires, so I just roll with it and take whats coming. Fun and interesting regardless of what happens.

 

[87storms]

the fact that it's showing snow south of dc is a good sign.  that run was better than i expected.  hopefully that's the start of a positive trend as we get closer to tipoff.

[WeathermanB]

As far as i'm concerned, rates actually increase the closer you get to the rain/snow line. This could help if you're close to the rain/snow line, especially if the rain starts falling heavier it might actually turn to snow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is definitely toasty at the surface before the precip gets rolling. Even out this way it is in the mid 30's at onset. 850's are good at the start on a line including Frederick county, VA, Clarke, Loudoun, the northern half of Faifax county and DC. Everything north of there is good at 850. South of that line is sketchy. It is a little early to be worrying about temps. But that is what the model shows verbatim.

I'm more worried about the time, than the surface temps.  What time is the precip onset?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, RDM said:

based on entire loop - there's multiple more hits in store for the MA after Tu/Wed right on though 02 April...  Going to be a potentially captivating couple of weeks.

Winters where blocking like this sets in between dec 15 and feb 15 is when we get a big winter. Shame this came so late. But better late then never it's fun tracking at least. Been a crazy ride this month. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

As far as i'm concerned, rates actually increase the closer you get to the rain/snow line. This could help if you're close to the rain/snow line, especially if the rain starts falling heavier it might actually turn to snow.

Yes this can happen, esp with the 850 temps right around 0c as depicted.

This might be your best ever post.