I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[BlizzardNole]

54 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Got here late December 2016.

Oh man what a rough time to move here!  After our great run of 2014-2015, followed by the Blizzard of 2016, Ji posted asking how badly we are going to pay.  Here we are! 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

Yeah thanks bob chill, i feel like i actually have a decent understanding now after following this for so long. the weather channel used to be my favorite channel as a child, no one got me , i thought i was the only one. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The scythe is for the slow ones or ones that don't see me coming. 

I bring out the big guns for weenies like you. 

I had to do hand analysis when I was chasing in the midwest last year. Gained a much greater appreciation for how important it is to identify every feature with severe wx. 

I have no idea what a  gun is. Must be really awesome though if you think it can catch me. 

[Amped]

Euro is further south and weaker than the GFS at 72

[showmethesnow]

Confluence over the NE is a little stronger. Track of the low should probably be slightly south of the 00z run. And we are already seeing a slight adjustment southward at 72 hours. Surface low is also coming in a touch quicker.

[Amped]

Euro just west of Wilmington at 96, way SE of the GFS. 850s look fine but the line is a few miles south of DC.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The euro wants to amp wave 1 and maybe keep us frozen?

[Ji]

Euro is stubborn

[ErinInTheSky]

Euro is giving us a hit from the front end again. It's nothing if not consistent.

[showmethesnow]

By 84 hrs the surface is a touch stronger but it looks as if it is making a move towards a quicker coastal transfer.

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Euro is stubborn

I hope that means it isn't giving up our storm!

[ers-wxman1]

Look at all the pieces at 500 on the euro at 96h. Potential for significant trough setup with all of this energy diving down and stout ridging out west. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Euro is stubborn

It's actually a sig shift south with the frontrunner. Gives us more room where the gfs took some away. Very steady though with the first piece. Impressive. 

[Cobalt]

Precip gets in by hr 90. We're close to NAM range

[Amped]

The quebec vortex is definitely  dropping into NE and interfering this run.  Hopefully we get a decent hit first.

[ErinInTheSky]

It must be the Euro. Slid the first wave south enough to slam Central VA more than us

[Cobalt]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's actually a sig shift south with the frontrunner. Gives us more room where the gfs took some away. Very steady though with the first piece. Impressive. 

A time where a compromise of the 2 would work 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Cobalt said:

A time where a compromise of the 2 would work 

Yup. Of all scenarios I'm fearful of, the Euro trending south is the least. Gives us more room IMO for when it finally arrives.

[Ji]

south way better than north

[Ralph Wiggum]

DT gonna like this Euro run?

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Nice placement of the low and 850s!

[Bob Chill]

Keeping the 2 pieces completely separate. I expect a lot of complaints incoming. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Keeping the 2 pieces completely separate. I expect a lot of complaints incoming. 

Only if it is WXUSF's scenario where we whiff south with first piece and it hooks around with second piece...

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Keeping the 2 pieces completely separate. I expect a lot of complaints incoming. 

Can't tell if this is sarcasm...what do you mean?

[Cobalt]

Dont feel too bad about this run. GFS is still pretty North, so is ICON. 

[ErinInTheSky]

NC/Southern Virginia gets pounded on this run. Again, not worried at all about this solution, a compromise puts us RIGHT where it needs to be, and I'll prefer a mix of north and south in the models than all to the north.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Can't tell if this is sarcasm...what do you mean?

The run sucks for our yards. It's an epic disaster if you marry it

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Keeping the 2 pieces completely separate. I expect a lot of complaints incoming. 

My complaint is the 50/50 low shredding the second low. The first one scoots in before it can dig.

[nj2va]

Is the bus ready?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Keeping the 2 pieces completely separate. I expect a lot of complaints incoming. 

It’s right where we want it. We all know it will shift back north. Remember blizzard 16 when euro shifted south for one run and everyone lost their minds lol