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Ji

I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

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Is that a 993mb low over Charlotte??
 
87a90258b8b2846d15cbb14afb5e3f0b.jpg&key=81f167cc65c128a2f440ff38ad991f7cde6cdbba431a29ce986c5797c394b83a
Looks closer to Rocky Mount or Greenville

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well @Bob ChiII you were right...this could very well be second wave or bust!

The front running waa piece has always looked like a northern tier at best scenario. What happens after that is VERY dynamic and no chance in hell an op model at 4 day leads has it right. Just let the show play out and get off the roller coaster. It's wasted energy. Once we get inside of 72 hours we'll know if there is something legit to talk about. For now it's just movie time. Some horror, some comedy, some tragedy, and a WHOLE LOTTA DRAMA ITT. 

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Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm tossing the GFS until the Euro crashes the party, or until the GFS looks as good as the euro.

the southern vort certainly looks better with wave 2.  just not sure how the NS looks.  the mets may need to chime in to clear out the mud.

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wave 2 might be warm as well tbh.
also, not a big fan of that closed low in the upper midwest.  looks like an epic setup, but just not sure who would win in this scenario:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031612&fh=114
we need the euro to show something cleaner.
Western Maryland and much of interior PA. Looks to move fairly quick.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Not as bad as people are making it out to be

I tried to provide reasonable and rational analysis. I also think my gut instincts are right so I'll save some people some heartache if they listen to me...just forget about the warm air advection with the front runner. FORGET ABOUT IT. If someone can't get over failing on that then they need to jump onto reddit or something. 

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If evolving parts are being depicted correctly, this could be a highly anomalous event. First wave is all WAA. Nothing more than a mix, perhaps start as wet snow then rain. 500 trough is juiced up. Jet energy gets loaded and if it captures could be quite a dump of snow not to mention wind and tidal issues for pretty much everyone from VA to ME. 

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It’s just lighter on precip through the cities with wave 2...juice that up and it’s similar to other models showing the better punch

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