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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Here's the thing, though.    The Ferrier computation isn't nearly as much of an algorithm as the Kuchera.    The Ferrier method is using direct microphysics from the model.   The NAM3 here is clearly saying that the snow is heavily rimed and therefore won't accumulate as well.     It's very possible that the model is too warm there around 850 and is therefore showing too much riming; it sounds like it's done that in previous cases.     But it's a fault of the model itself and not the algorithm.  

  

That makes sense. Thanks for the bit of info. I don't think it's terrible and likely has more weight than the 10:1 this go around given the forecast soundings, but I feel it's a bit too conservative sometimes. I didn't hate the NAM runs. We need qpf around here in March to get something formidable. I would like to see the warm nose not as robust. 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That makes sense. Thanks for the bit of info. I don't think it's terrible and likely has more weight than the 10:1 this go around given the forecast soundings, but I feel it's a bit too conservative sometimes. I didn't hate the NAM runs. We need qpf around here in March to get something formidable. I would like to see the warm nose not as robust. 

        I agree.   The NAM3 is overall pretty good, but it is sometimes aggressive with warm noses.    I remember this vividly in the Blizzard of 2016.

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RDM

RDM

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ehh, there's more to hate than love on this run if you want snow.

 

This is after the PBL cools:

nam3km_2018031812_fh54_sounding_38.94N_7


This is at the start of precip:

 

nam3km_2018031812_fh46_xsection_39.72N,7

 

Thermals get supportive of snow/sleet mix and finally all-snow, but due to the saturation issues around the critical -10C layer, you're talking around 21z Tue-00z Wed before you get into a situation where there are decent pockets of light-mod snow interspersed with freezing drizzle and snow grains.

38.94N and 77.03W appears to be along Georgia Ave in DC-NW at an elevation of 232'   What about the soundings at IAD or BWI?  Would help to get away from the UHI some, yes?

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs not gonna do it. Still letting wave 1 escape and reforming down over SC. The minute that happens it's over. Flow is way too progressive to get a storm down there up here. 

If ya wanna talk about trends, that Low from the second wave is even closer to the coast at that timeframe than 6z or 0z...at least to my eyes, anyway

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything about 12z. And it isn't just leesburg04

yea i'm just looking for trends at this point and i think that's 2 runs in a row now of a closer coastal low. probably still need it to be further north, but it's not quite the fish storm it was looking like before (at least for now).

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Out of all the good posters here, I read and re-read yours the most. I didn't like the soundings either but I also didn't care much one way or the other. The nam will probably provide brand new high fives and valley lows every six hours. If the euro runs the stripe a bit north from 0z then I'm probaby ready to go all in on at least something acceptable in my yard. Meaning grass coverage at worst and some minor heavy wet shoveling at best. 

If there's one positive aspect, it's that the thermals for a potential wave 2 are much better and there's some more support for an actual wave 2.

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

CMC looks like complete nuke job with wave 2. 

 

 

Just now, WeathermanB said:

12z CMC with the 2nd wave weaker compared to 00z. Also farther OTS. Not a good sign?

 

Don't ever change AMWX, don't ever change...

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