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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I dunno. I was not expecting the U.K. To look like the gfs. I honestly thought the gfs was just a bad solution. But having the U.K. say "yea that" bothers me. So now I don't know what to think. So I'll just see where it goes and how it plays out. I thought things were trending the right way now I'm not so sure. I am sure wave 1 is fools gold imo. If it does something it will be part of an amplified consolidated system like the cmc. Not on its own as a washing out front runner. 

We still have a mix of trends here...and any negatives in the mix still have time to turn around. Overall things got closer today, imo...let's see what tonight and tomorrow brings.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Well, I doubt a fringe your way because the final push north happens tomorrow. You also benefit from climo location. I'll get more precip and you'll get more snow.

We have different perspectives so that is why people like yoda see us divided. I'm hoping for a grass coverer and maybe 4" if it breaks right. I still strongly believe Wave 2 is viable and not trending to a fail. It's being resurrected from a fail from last night.

A big event isnt necessary for me to be completely satisfied. We differ there so our "spin" comes from 2 different views. Getting grass covering accum snow in the third week of March is a win. Getting 4" is a big deal. It takes less for me to be happy than you. Anyone reading our posts needs to decide what side they are on for themselves with what is goodone  and what isn't.

Very true. My bar is 6". I said that a while ago. We have different climo. 6" here is as common as 2" where you are probably. But the fact it's been so crappy is kind of why I want a big event. A 10" storm can save something here. A 3" fringe event will only further cement this fail year because it's a failed opportunity for more. This setup has big upside. If all it ends up being is 2-3" with the lead wave it's a failure. I'm kind of with JI on that. I'm not going to act like a 4 year old if it happens but I'll feel disappointed. So yea if people are just hunting a grass covering event I'm probably being too pessimistic. If your hunting a warning criteria event then I make more sense. Fair enough?

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very true. My bar is 6". I said that a while ago. We have different climo. 6" here is as common as 2" where you are probably. But the fact it's been so crappy is kind of why I want a big event. A 10" storm can save something here. A 3" fringe event will only further cement this fail year because it's a failed opportunity for more. This setup has big upside. If all it ends up being is 2-3" with the lead wave it's a failure. I'm kind of with JI on that. I'm not going to act like a 4 year old if it happens but I'll feel disappointed. So yea if people are just hunting a grass covering event I'm probably being too pessimistic. If your hunting a warning criteria event then I make more sense. Fair enough?

Everything this year has been such a struggle and uphill climb. We just can't seem to get any sustained momentum with any individual event. A lot can still go right for this one though. Personally I'm good with 4 inches with this event. The front runner can definitely end up a couple ticks north from where it is right now. If it does indeed do that we could get under the .6-.7 contour for qpf. even though it shears out.

 

The good thing about wave 2 is that it's still 72 hours plus out, however I'm with you in that wave 1 has to slow down to make it work. As of right now I would say we get 3-4 with front runner and teased by number 2.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Everything this year has been such a struggle and uphill climb. We just can't seem to get any sustained momentum with any individual event. A lot can still go right for this one though. Personally I'm good with 4 inches with this event. The front runner can definitely end up a couple ticks north from where it is right now. If it does indeed do that we could get under the .6-.7 contour for qpf. even though it shears out.

 

The good thing about wave 2 is that it's still 72 hours plus out, however I'm with you in that wave 1 has to slow down to make it work. As of right now I would say we get 3-4 with front runner and teased by number 2.

That's how I'm leaning too. And that result would bum me out some. I'm not gonna be distraught it's just snow. But bummed. I'm big event hunting now. Too late to built snowpack or pad stats. Only a big ticket item is really gonna do much for me at this point. 

You're right we never made progress when we needed it. But that's because every event was destined to fail. The guidance was good enough to never tease us with everything locked in on a false alarm. They always were telling us by not showing good solutions across guidance that something was wrong. 48 hours ago we had consensus and since then it's diverged. I won't pretend that doesn't bother me but a long way to go and we're still in the game. A big euro run would be nice.  

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

I think its gonna be really good, setting up for 985 on top of ocean city. Hell bring it in the mouth of the Chesapeake, im so far west IDC.

Yeah, it's keying on the second wave it seems.  So long as it brings it north, we're golden.  If it slides out to sea, we're screwed.  And the next frame says...

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, yoda said:

Huh?  Boston misses on this run

He doesn't mean the literal Boston.  He means the figurative Boston, which is a place where it snows more than it does here, and which acts like a vacuum whenever we have a decent shot at a good storm.

In a way, each of us has a Boston to face. For some, shyness might be their Boston. For others, a lack of education might be their Boston. For us, Boston is a city to our northeast with a more favorable snow climo who wants to see our storm pull out to the beyond the benchmark.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

On weather.us looks like about .5 for DC? 3-4 inches if we're lucky?

Its an evolving situation, lol.

Actually it is. To hell with the lead wave..let it continue to dampen to nothing. Looks like we may have a trend towards a legit coastal. The weaker the lead, the better the chance the second piece develops.

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SlamSlam

SlamSlam

Posted
Posted
I wonder if your other 33 posts were as bad as this one.
Sorry. I know where Boston is. When I say Boston these days I just mean elsewhere outside the MA forum. Will stop doing so. Ot makes no sense to anyone since I realize they did not get hit on this, yet.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SlamSlam said:

Sorry. I know where Boston is. When I say Boston these days I just mean elsewhere outside the MA forum. Will stop doing so. Ot makes no sense to anyone since I realize they did not get hit on this, yet.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
 

That's what I said he was saying!

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