I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Me thinks we need a south trend with the 1st wave

It's been trending south. Here's just the last two runs. 

[Cobalt]

PSU not fringed on the first wave

[nj2va]

I did like seeing the 12z NAM shift south again with wave 1...its a great run for Winchester, etc and even DC is close to something big.  Giddy up.

[stormtracker]

I know "out here" you guys are good.  As the Governor of the Urban areas, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift south.  We may have to put our eggs into the front run thump at this point.

[Interstate]

Told you I didn’t hate the NAM run

[stormtracker]

Second system on the NAM might be ready to do business tho

[clueless]

Eh. Needed a good NAMing. First time all year it has shown a decent outcome for MBY.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I know "out here" you guys are good.  As the Governor of the Urban areas, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift south.  We may have to put our eggs into the front run thump at this point.

Yeah...total snowfall looked excellent for me 7 inches then I saw Kuchera...wasn’t so kind

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Second system on the NAM might be ready to do business tho

Was just about to say that. Looked primed & ready to go off. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yeah...total snowfall looked excellent for me 7 inches then I saw Kuchera...wasn’t so kind

yup..and I'd def use Kuchera rather than the other stuff.  It's a good trend I guess...but meh for us

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I know "out here" you guys are good.  As the Governor of the Urban areas, I'd like to see a 50-75 mile shift south.  We may have to put our eggs into the front run thump at this point.

Nams off to a good start. Even the "south" euro stripes a prime spot to shift overhead at 72 hour leads. 

3k Sim sat look great. I like wave 1 now. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Was just about to say that. Looked primed & ready to go off. 

NAM at 84hrs always looks primed and ready to go off though. lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

27 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Really surprised no one mentioned the timing. The first wave comes in between 18z Monday and 0z Tuesday, and peaks in intensity at 6z Tuesday. No sun angle to deal with here, unless we're talking about the 2nd wave


.

That would be ideal.

[BristowWx]

Just now, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is the system moving too quickly or is it just not falling heavily enough?

I will assume it’s temps for me...I am 30 miles WSW of DC...but really just need a small shift south so it’s fine.  

[mappy]

Can we please try and banter in the banter thread when the models are coming out.


.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ya don't think even the first wave could get squashed, do ya?....If we're putting all our eggs in that basket, I would really hate to see it trend TOO far south! As for the second wave...is it too early to give up on that completely? And if what cranky was saying about the blocking likely retreating and reloading (instead of just getting the heck out of here) actually happens...seems like it's definitely first wave or bust!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is the system moving too quickly or is it just not falling heavily enough?

850's near 32 and surface near or above 32 on the run, so snow is probably mixing south of I-70 with rain or sleet.

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yeah...total snowfall looked excellent for me 7 inches then I saw Kuchera...wasn’t so kind

700 and 850 mb are iffy, with marginal surface temps for S and E areas. Would be sleety verbatim. Close though. Need a slight shift south and that 10:1 map divided by 2 would be about right.

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Nams off to a good start. Even the "south" euro stripes a prime spot to shift overhead at 72 hour leads. 

3k Sim sat look great. I like wave 1 now. 

Looks juiced...thats for sure.  T-storms going off in the southern apps....

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Can we please try and banter in the banter thread when the models are coming out.


.

Aren't we kinda in between, though? Still about a half hour before the GFS, right?

[mappy]

Aren't we kinda in between, though? Still about a half hour before the GFS, right?

Pretty sure we don’t need to rehash the UMBC game.


.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is that unusual for this time of year? 

No.

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is that unusual for this time of year? 

Not really..just nice to see a system slide under us with some kick to it.  Good rates coming down in March, at night.... 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

Pretty sure we don’t need to rehash the UMBC game.


.

 

Some of us are still reveling...lol (but I keep forgetting this one's a forum divider, haha Point taken)

[snowmagnet]

40 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Really surprised no one mentioned the timing. The first wave comes in between 18z Monday and 0z Tuesday, and peaks in intensity at 6z Tuesday. No sun angle to deal with here, unless we're talking about the 2nd wave


.

That’s much earlier than I saw a couple of days ago! I thought it was Tuesday night to Wed.  

[ErinInTheSky]

NAM looks like a hit for me in Gaithersburg. 

[WesternFringe]

36 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Me thinks we need a south trend with the 1st wave

The skill of the euro @ 84 hrs > the skill of the 84 hr NAM, so I expect the south trending to continue on the NAMs.  That would be good for most of the sub forum.

[aldie 22]

Nam looks good to me. Snow depth is not my concern, it's gonna be falling at a good rate regardless according to this model. Just look out the window straight and not at the ground you won't even notice

[87storms]

Wave 1 is part of (or the main part) of the low moving through the west now so im not surprised it stays active.  Southern stream is visible too on satellite.  I don’t think there’s any question that’s the low to focus on now. It cuts right across the country...and can’t get too far north with the blocking in place.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Wave 1 is part of (or the main part) of the low moving through the west now so im not surprised it stays active.  Southern stream is visible too on satellite.  I don’t think there’s any question that’s the low to focus on now. It cuts right across the country...and can’t get too far north with the blocking in place.

The NAM looked like it had some semblance of wave 2...all caveats apply for the NAM of course