I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Looks like the wave ejects out of Cali and some models wash it out and then re energize it as some NS energy dives down. Where it ends up might be determined by how that energy and blocking interact with it.

Lots of pieces in motion. Way too early to get subatomic with analysis on how they ultimately interact..especially with the NAM. It's basically irrelevant at this stage.

I really like the h5 look on the EPS leading in. I do not fear this(these) waves being crushed southward given the look and the time of year.. I dare the weather gods to prove me wrong.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lot of pieces in motion. Way too early to get subatomic with analysis on how they ultimately interact..especially with the NAM. Its basically irrelevant at this stage.

I really like the h5 look on the EPS leading in. I do not fear this(these) waves being crushed southward given the look and the time of year.. I dare the weather gods to prove me wrong.

I agree except the suppression in March thing. Plenty of storms can be squashed and have been in march. It has to do with the flow not temperatures. even in summer things can get suppressed. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree except the suppression in March thing. Plenty of storms can be squashed and have been in march. It has to do with the flow not temperatures. even in summer things can get suppressed. 

There's been plenty of warm cutters with strong/severe storms too. I'll take the March climo blend and gas up the snowblower. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree except the suppression in March thing. Plenty of storms can be squashed and have been in march. It has to do with the flow not temperatures. even in summer things can get suppressed. 

Yeah it can happen, but if there is going to be a deep/closed h5 low with the advertised look up top, which seems favored att, I cant see it being suppressed. Now, if the wave(s) dampen and get strung out and weaken as they head east, then sure, SE VA/NC could score a mostly non accumulating snow event while we get nothing.

[Bob Chill]

ICON coming in south of 12z. It's either good or bad. I'm pretty sure of that. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

ICON coming in south of 12z. It's either good or bad. I'm pretty sure of that. 

North of 6z, South of 12z at hr 72

[H2O]

Our suppressed storm will either get amped or our amped storm will get suppressed. PSU will not like it or love it

[Amped]

GFS moved a couple things around in Canada and Alaska, going to show something new this run. Not sure what.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ICON coming in south of 12z. It's either good or bad. I'm pretty sure of that. 

It's good. I'm 100% sure of that now.  Great run for a JV model. Boom

[87storms]

icon is better than 12z.  still a bit weird though.  imo.

[87storms]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's good. I'm 100% sure of that now.  Great run for a JV model. Boom

i can't hate.  it's a good trend.  pretty stretched out storm though lol...would like to see some consolidation of it at some point, or maybe that's just the way it'll be.

[psuhoffman]

If the icon cuts off it could become an epic run. It's very close. 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS moved a couple things around in Canada and Alaska, going to show something new this run. Not sure what.

Apps runner

[HighStakes]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I remember the euro in 2016 blizzard that had one run that went pretty south like 3 or 4 days out

It was the 12z run on tuesday of that week I'm pretty sure. Only 72 hours from first flakes and it shifted everything south like over 100 miles but everything came back north at 0z.

[WeathermanB]

Hang on i gotta put on a white t shirt for the 18z GFS

[showmethesnow]

So did I miss any melt downs over the Euro and the EPS? 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS moved a couple things around in Canada and Alaska, going to show something new this run. Not sure what.

The changes are super minor at 54 hours so far imo. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Now I'm wondering...if the warmer/north runs come south at 18z...hpw are we supposed to feel about that? Lol Because if they trend south, it's probably gonna show a hit. But in light of this afternoon's Euro, do we worry about whether it's the start of a south trend? (Would we rather see them stay a little north for now?....Nah)

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i can't hate.  it's a good trend.  pretty stretched out storm though lol...would like to see some consolidation of it at some point, or maybe that's just the way it'll be.

Like CAPE said, sub-atomic analysis doesn't add much but you can't get mad at the track of the lead wave. I'm starting to think that my (our) yard is in better shape for that than I first thought....

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It was the 12z run on tuesday of that week I'm pretty sure. Only 72 hours from first flakes and it shifted everything south like over 100 miles but everything came back north at 0z.

There were two runs I thInk but the worst was the 0z on the 18th. A little closer then we are now.  The para euro which is the op now, had almost nothing here. Maybe 6" in DC and confined the big snow into central VA. The EPS went south that run too. It shifted back north next run. But the euro products remained the furthest south of all guidance to the end and busted bad on the north side. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I'm wondering...if the warmer/north runs come south at 18z...hpw are we supposed to feel about that? Lol Because if they trend south, it's probably gonna show a hit. But in light of this afternoon's Euro, do we worry about whether it's the start of a south trend? (Would we rather see them stay a little north for now?....Nah)

Good IMO. Unless they continue to go south. We can't come back from being on the south side of the snow shield 72 hours or less out. 

[WeathermanB]

540's a little farther south 18z GFS... at hour 72 vs hr 78 of 12z GFS

[87storms]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Like CAPE said, sub-atomic analysis doesn't add much but you can't get mad at the track of the lead wave. I'm starting to think that my (our) yard is in better shape for that than I first thought....

yea and it's easy to forget it's still 100+ hrs out, so really need another day for the models to merge a bit.

[Amped]

Even weaker NS this run. Luckily the front runner looks south

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I'm wondering...if the warmer/north runs come south at 18z...hpw are we supposed to feel about that? Lol Because if they trend south, it's probably gonna show a hit. But in light of this afternoon's Euro, do we worry about whether it's the start of a south trend? (Would we rather see them stay a little north for now?....Nah)

Depends how south. Looks like the icon just did I'm ok. Gets good precip into central pa is my barometer. Gets me into good precip but barely and I'm naso happy. 

Thats a generalization as precip isn't the most important panel at range but you get the idea. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Good IMO. Unless they continue to go south. We can't come back from being on the south side of the snow shield 72 hours or less out. 

True...I guess the often-quoted addage of "better to need a north trend than a southern one" would apply here...(even though it previously didn't work, lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends how south. Looks like the icon just did I'm ok. Gets good precip into central pa is my barometer. Gets me into good precip but barely and I'm naso happy. 

I think we need to have an intervention about your fringeaphobia....

[Bob Chill]

GFS is much warmer in the mids than the euro. Fairly big spread for d3-4. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs just corrected its way over amped in the TN valley issue. Hopefully that just means colder better transfer and not suppressed. 

[Yeoman]

March showers brings April flowers