I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Low is up here

GTFO of this forum

[Porsche]

EPS Precip

[ErinInTheSky]

EPS looks plenty good to me, with misses north, south, and hits.

 

[Cobalt]

Should be about time for an EPS report

South some (not unexpected), but looks like the snow mean is in a great position.

Seriously, does this look like a snow mean map from Mid-late March?



.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Should be about time for an EPS report

Looking at mean qpf, the heavier stuff is shifted south some from 0z. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Porsche said:

EPS Precip

That shouldn't still be what is happening at this time in March. That's a kick in the nuts, frankly.

[TSSN+]

Mean looks fine. Similar to last night. Dropped a little, but that’s expected with a 20” drop in op. Lol 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Should be about time for an EPS report

It wasn't at bad as the op but it was a noticeable step in the wrong direction from last night. 

Way more suppressed misses then last run especially up here but enough hits not to jump ship either  

12z

Old 0z

 

[griteater]

Euro Ensemble Mean

[midatlanticweather]

In general I see no trend today towards one solution or the other. What I do see is no consensus. I like consensus and trending better each run.. Jumps make me jumpy.. Also means no one has any confidence at all..   0z better be more focused.. Just saying.. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Mean looks fine. Similar to last night. Dropped a little, but that’s expected with a 20” drop in op. Lol 

Depends on your definition of a little. I dropped from 5.5" to 3". That's a 40% drop. Pretty significant . Also saw a big increase in members that miss to my south with the 6"+ snow. It's not awful. Not ledge worthy. But it's a big step the wrong way from the last 2 runs and I'm not gonna sugar coat that either. I want to see improvements not steps back. 

[stormtracker]

Well....

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends on your definition of a little. I dropped from 5.5" to 3". That's a 40% drop. Pretty signed fixing. Also saw a big increase in members that miss to my south with the 6"+ snow. It's not awful. Not ledge worthy. But it's a big step the wrong way from the last 2 runs and I'm not gonna sugar coat that either. I want to see improvements not steps back. 

I guess one positive is it appears to be the southern outlier of the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS trio.  It looks like if anything the GEPS/GEFS shifted a little north with everything at 12z.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends on your definition of a little. I dropped from 5.5" to 3". That's a 40% drop. Pretty signed fixing. Also saw a big increase in members that miss to my south with the 6"+ snow. It's not awful. Not ledge worthy. But it's a big step the wrong way from the last 2 runs and I'm not gonna sugar coat that either. I want to see improvements not steps back. 

Maybe 3” for you closer to 5 for me. Near the same here so I’m not going to really worry. And of course some members went south, the op went south. It’s not that bad. Only model that far south. Likely a blip imo. 

[Climate175]

EPS still pretty good, let's hope it stays that way.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

I guess one positive is it appears to be the southern outlier of the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS trio.  It looks like if anything the GEPS/GEFS shifted a little north with everything at 12z.

Yea I'm not unhappy with the full 12z suite. 

Gfs and ukmet are north

cmc and navgem are in the middle. 

Euro and jma are south. 

Overall we're good. But I would feel better if the euro was still on my side. I dont fear north. Not with the blocking I see. Especially with wave 2. If this fails where I am it's going to be suppression so I don't want to see anything south, that's all. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I'm not unhappy with the full 12z suite. 

Gfs and ukmet are north

cmc and navgem are in the middle. 

Euro and jma are south. 

Overall we're good. But I would feel better if the euro was still on my side. I dont fear north. Not with the blocking I see. Especially with wave 2. If this fails where I am it's going to be suppression so I don't want to see anything south, that's all. 

Since we're allowing banter I do kinda have that weenie feeling that 12z was the classic hiccup run and at 00z the Euro will be back to something nice.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Maybe 3” for you closer to 5 for me. Near the same here so I’m not going to really worry. And of course some members went south, the op went south. It’s not that bad. Only model that far south. Likely a blip imo. 

Same here.  6 on 0z and 5 on 12z.  Not gonna sweat it for now.  If 18z has major shift south then I might have to reevaluate my feelings

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I'm not unhappy with the full 12z suite. 

Gfs and ukmet are north

cmc and navgem are in the middle. 

Euro and jma are south. 

Overall we're good. But I would feel better if the euro was still on my side. I dont fear north. Not with the blocking I see. Especially with wave 2. If this fails where I am it's going to be suppression so I don't want to see anything south, that's all. 

You’ll do well because despite less precip you be closer to cold smoke.  I have to sweat temps where you don’t have to nearly as much.  I have to worry about IP and you don’t.  You’re good I am sure of it unless...well you know.  I still like to be above the 540 especially in March so this south move by the euro should be welcome.  I think.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Same here.  6 on 0z and 5 on 12z.  Not gonna sweat it for now.  If 18z has major shift south then I might have to reevaluate my feelings

Admit it, you already have

[Bob Chill]

The eps will almost always follow the op in general under 7 days. There's a significant cluster with direct hits. Looks just fine to me. WHEN (and I don't mean if/when) the euro shifts north with wave 1 then the EPS will sweeten up. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Admit it, you already have

You know me so well..guilty as charged..full blown panic lol...gonna pour me a glass of confidence

[psuhoffman]

I don't judge ensembles by the mean anyways. The mean is skewed. I judge it by the % that give me the desired result. My bar for a "win" here is 6". You can think that's too high and I won't argue but that's my bar. 3-6 I wouldn't complain and it's not a fail but that's kinda a tie to me. Less then 3 is another fail. 

So...

0z

44% gave me 6"+. That was about in line with my 40% max expectations for a hit at medium range. But another factor is the misses were split between north and south evenly so the largest camp was hits. That matters too  

12z

Only 20% give me 6"+ but the worst part is 37/50 miss me south  that's now by far the majority camp.  Only 2 miss north.  1 is a flush hit but weak.  

Thats a major step back for up here.  It's not as bad further south.  But it was a step towards suppression.  Hopefully 0z amps up more.

 

 

[Jandurin]

I forget that you're rather significantly north of me.

I hope this storm doesn't fringe N MD

[clskinsfan]

The EPS look good to me. The mean is still about the best we have seen this winter. Especially at a pretty close lead time now. One benefit of a track through southern VA is we wont have to worry about temps at all. Better ratio's and all of that jazz. Cant say that very often with a March storm.

[osfan24]

Not panicking over one run of one model but that's not at all what we wanted to see, especially from the steadiest model over the past couple of days. Still a ways to go, but isn't this how the rug starts to get pulled all winter?

[Scraff]

Looking forward to the Friday fun roller coaster continuing. I’m going to pour some (another) awesome Key Brewing IPA, watch the Mountaineers, and get ready and primed for GFS happy hour March Madness.   

[Interstate]

biggest GFS run of the winter coming up

[WeathermanB]

We need a "Friday Fun" model (FF) to be created and initialize it every Friday of the winter.

[Cobalt]

Dunno, doesn't look too bad.