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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh, no doubt dude. We need to be inside of 72 before setting any kind of bar. Especially with what appears to be 2 shortwaves in close succession. Not a chance the ops have it right yet. I was mostly just saying that a trend better @ d5 is pretty sweet and timely. 

The storm is a given with all models. Climo suggests that north and west and even southwest of D.C. does best considering late March. The wonderful aspect is that we are all in the game. This will probably be an elevation event.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'm guessing but it wouldn't surprise me if that first wave trends weaker and the 2nd wave becomes more of the main show.  maybe by tomorrow it will have a more consolidated solution.

Oh it wouldn't surprise me either, but I want things to continue to move forward in time. The delayed, not denied thing never seems to work well for us as things inevitably change and then we miss the storm.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly, the euro and gfs do it different ways. Euro is a better track/evolution with the front runner and the trailing shortwave just prolongs everything. The GFS sorta sucks with the frontrunner but the trailing piece closes off and blows the F up. I'm good with either. I'll go with a blend for now. lol

Yeah kinda torn lol. For some reason I think the following wave bomb idea is better/makes more sense. Looking only at h5, I was a little surprised at how the Euro got it done mostly with the lead wave.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS is a good run no matter how you slice it. Trended the right way in every aspect from 12z. We're only talking d5 too. 

Pretty obvious this right now looks like a 2 part storm. All guidance has a wave with WAA thump then a but of a lull before the trough amplifies and another low develops then we might get ccb'd. But man if we could get both... or if we could get it a bit more consolidated so it's just one event without a 6-12 hour gap...that's asking too much though. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty obvious this right now looks like a 2 part storm. All guidance has a wave with WAA thump then a but of a lull before the trough amplifies and another low develops then we might get ccb'd. But man if we could get both... or if we could get it a bit more consolidated so it's just one event without a 6-12 hour gap...that's asking too much though. 

Honestly, I feel like this is probably the one. I gave up on the last one fairly quickly. All the others before that had promise but red flags for problems and we ended up on the short end every single time. The only big problem with this one is time of year. The upper levels look really close on all guidance through d5 so there's really not much spread. The disagreement comes from 2 tightly spaced shortwaves. Up where you live you can probably do well with the lead wave and the WAA snow. Not so sure that will work down my way. The backside can work for all of us but it might be weak with flat flow/confluence to the NE. The second piece is a bit of a powder keg.

tl;dr - there are 3 chances for snow in your yard and I'd guess at least one works out. My yard needs the second piece to go to town and it's certainly possible that it could end up as one big drawn out event...like pd2 but in march. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm just not ready for winter to be over. I would take it and lock it up in a heartbeat. 7" is more snow than I've ever seen in my life.

When we get a true HECS you're gonna be as happy as a pig in slop. To be honest it feels like I haven't seen a 7" storm in my life. Only storms I vividly remember are GB '16 and March 5th 2015. I have no recollection of 13/14 whatsoever, and little of Jan 26th 2011 & 09/10 I'd take 4" of snow in fact. Would get me to double digits.

I wasn't a snow weenie in 5th grade for winter 13/14 :axe:

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Just day dreaming here, but long duration snowstorms in March can happen. I gotta look up the March 58 upper air pattern but I am fairly sure that was like a 24+ hour event.

I know there are some EPS members that really blow up the "second" part. I personally would like to see that be the case because while the HP is there it is sort of a late arrival. 

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm not gonna get greedy.

 

4KOhUl6.jpg

This map shows a more realistic outcome for mid January. Don't be disappointed, but the heavier accumulations need to be focused on the higher elevations to the west. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, I feel like this is probably the one. I gave up on the last one fairly quickly. All the others before that had promise but red flags for problems and we ended up on the short end every single time. The only big problem with this one is time of year. The upper levels look really close on all guidance through d5 so there's really not much spread. The disagreement comes from 2 tightly spaced shortwaves. Up where you live you can probably do well with the lead wave and the WAA snow. Not so sure that will work down my way. The backside can work for all of us but it might be weak with flat flow/confluence to the NE. The second piece is a bit of a powder keg.

tl;dr - there are 3 chances for snow in your yard and I'd guess at least one works out. My yard needs the second piece to go to town and it's certainly possible that it could end up as one big drawn out event...like pd2 but in march. 

I really like this setup except for the date like you said. It's uncanny how similar all the guidance is handling this and we're inside the "red flag" range when all our previous systems presented their warts. The issue here is we need everything to come together perfectly. A mediocre result that would have been an 8" snow in February will be an unhappy ending March 22. 

But the perfect setup is possible. One thing that is on the table is what HM said earlier. I considered posting this after I saw similarities from the overnight runs but thought Randy might ban me. The 1958 comparison is legit. Look at the h5 from that. This might even be south of that a bit. 

RenderedContent-4155C710-3609-497C-AEE1-2244A87EBC1E.thumb.JPG.b2e354e1f54a25eb5a530f8eee4f8437.JPG

The upper level evolution is very similar with an upper low getting essentially stuck and forced to stall then with a second price of energy dig and amplify but very slowly as it's trapped in the flow. That's how we got that storm to sit off the coast for days like that. Seeing the same pattern lends credence to the idea on the guidance that this could be a long duration event. The euro put a bit too much into the front so the back was weaker but who cares it HECS us with the front side lol. The other guidance is more split and have two healthy waves. It's complicated how those waves play off each other but if they decide to play nice this has big upside potential. 

Its just potential at this point. But it's legit. It's on all guidance. The pattern supports it. We've seen the crazy analogs spitting out all month for this blocking. There has been snow all around us the last 2 weeks. I don't think this pattern has been bad. We've just been unlucky. There were flaws in the pattern all winter. This month we just weren't in the right spot. The shotgun blasts of snow hit all around us. There were discreet reasons for that. Primary too far north. NS vort diving on top. No cold in front. But this h5 pattern has been and is ripe. 

Randy can ban me but I'm not gonna ignore it just because we're frustrated over recent lack of snow. I'm not gassing up my snowblower yet either. I know this could go bad easily. But it also could be our turn and in not gonna miss tracking it over frustration at the last storm. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Just chiming in. What an epic happy hour run. I am really curious if this ends up being a PDII like scenario where the first part has some epic WAA snows then the main coastal blows up.

One of the most entertaining 500mb plots Ive seen on a model in a long time.

PDII is the #2 analog

5aab0062b754e_qiwudf.PNG.3349f63c70423042adfec44db6a4a243(1).PNG.fe29ca1b263cb5ec3924ffad69eaaa46.PNG

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mdhokie

mdhokie

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, stormy said:

The storm is a given with all models. Climo suggests that north and west and even southwest of D.C. does best considering late March. The wonderful aspect is that we are all in the game. This will probably be an elevation event.

Did you miss the part where the GFS gives eastern maryland a foot of snow?

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