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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, showmethesnow said:

Trough is still positive when it catches up to the low. So it pushes it straight ahead. Need a negative tilt to bring it north.

would it head north, maybe earlier, regardless of the trough tilt if that HP in GL and low east of Maine wasn't there?  I mean is this more like a west to east overrun situation as depicted?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The gfs is suppressed because it's further east with the northern stream trough diving in so instead of coming in behind and phasing into the 10-18" storm the euro had it drops on top and squashes it. Lol. That never happens does it :wacko:

Both have that feature so unfortunately it's probably real and we need to get it to play nice. Two ways to win...get that feature west like the euro which dives it into the Ohio valley and phases. Or get that feature to back off north just a bit from the gfs location so the low ends up near Norfolk instead of the outer banks. Either works. But all year those NS features have been diving down on top of us wrecking every setup. So I'm not holding my breath that it decides to cooperate all of a sudden. I would rather it simply not be there at all. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Kuchera actually treats us kindly. 2-5 inches region wide.

It looks ok but I'm not tracking .25 qpf in late march. I doubt those rates work. Maybe but I'm disinterested in another 2-3" event. So my analysts is what we need for a euro solution. We need a 1"+ qpf bomb here. 

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ErinInTheSky

ErinInTheSky

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It looks ok but I'm not tracking .25 qpf in late march. I doubt those rates work. Maybe but I'm disinterested in another 2-3" event. So my analysts is what we need for a euro solution. We need a 1"+ qpf bomb here. 

2-3" would be 25%-50% of the total season snowfall for lots of people, lol. I want it.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

would it head north, maybe earlier, regardless of the trough tilt if that HP in GL and low east of Maine wasn't there?  I mean is this more like a west to east overrun situation as depicted?

Actually we probably want that high there if not just a little more southwesterly. Problem I see is that the shortwave moves to far east before it takes the drop southward, PSU alluded to this. I still think that it was workable if the better ridging in front of it continued to build. Unfortunately the flow around the 50/50 dampened/suppressed that down and we had a flat flow for the shortwave/surface low to track on. As is, we are probably at the mercy of the 50/50 once again. See that positioned more like the EPS and we are probably good, even better if we see the blocking break down allowing the 50/50 to escape in conjunction with the short wave moving in. Allows for some major amplification on the coast where the low will ride up the coast.

eta: Realized I really never answered your question. Not having a high or a weaker high there might allow for some movement northward but not much. 500's are what basically are steering this storm at that point. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

At this point i will take a blend of the GFS and CMC. Should be a solid forecast 7 days out lol

At this point I wouldn't even look at the cmc because it sucks. Yes it did good last storm but it's been so all over other times...At some point more guidance just adds noise.  A blend of the gfs and euro with help from the ensembles and a little common sense analog based interpretation works pretty good. The b team is entertainment but nothing else.  I suppose if things are tied in your mind and stuck without a good meteorological reason to lean one way of the other then lookIng to the other guidance to tip the scales isn't so bad. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

So far through 12 days, the mean temperature for March at DCA is 42.7.  February finished at 45.3.  Last year was only the 7th time ever that March finished colder than February in DC.  If it happens again this year, it would be the first time back-to-back years had that happen since 1890-91.

Other years were 1887, 1909, 1960, 1984 and 1932 which has been an analog that has popped up often since last year's hurricane season.

Would appear with renewed blocking a continued negative AO and a negative NAO maybe the month does make it slightly below normal .  If i were in the landscape business I keep plows handy and hold off on the mowers. Although my grass is greening up, it is a far cry from some March months, when it can go to 80 and everything was green and growing fast.  Keep those bugs at bay for a couple more weeks please. 

   

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I created threads for Jan 2016 too, so now what?  I have the Force too.  All I need now is to have a conference video call with you on the screen. 

you have the force to end this misery. 

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