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Rjay

March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

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Just to review:

 

EURO: 979 about 150 miles east of the BM

NAVGEM: 971 at the BM (weird/encouraging given the SE bias)

NAM 12Z : 969 just south of the BM

GFS: 966 about 100 miles east of the BM

RGEM: 972 about 50 miles east of the BM

ICON: 973 about 30 miles east of the BM

 

Things could be much worse 30 hours before a storm is set to start for the eastern 2/3 of the forum

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47 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Just to review:

 

EURO: 979 about 150 miles east of the BM

NAVGEM: 971 at the BM (weird/encouraging given the SE bias)

NAM 12Z : 969 just south of the BM

GFS: 966 about 100 miles east of the BM

RGEM: 972 about 50 miles east of the BM

ICON: 973 about 30 miles east of the BM

 

Things could be much worse 30 hours before a storm is set to start for the eastern 2/3 of the forum

Meaning much less snow. Correct?

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2 minutes ago, Snowman86 said:

Meaning much less snow. Correct?

86 ,,,if you want Snow or a Storm you want those models ideally AT the benchmark or West of it would be better for many------East of it is not good

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Track mean is right on BM

Its at least 50 miles south if not more. But the west leaning members are numerous and bring some hope

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10 minutes ago, snow1 said:

This storm could’ve been such a huge one for us. Sucks that it’s going to the east of us

The other two could have also

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5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Its at least 50 miles south if not more. But the west leaning members are numerous and bring some hope

Yea my bad I looked at it more closely now... looks like it’s around 70/39

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The other two could have also

 

18 minutes ago, snow1 said:

This storm could’ve been such a huge one for us. Sucks that it’s going to the east of us

Ummmmm this storm didn’t happen yet. I think the deform band sets right over New York City for 5 hours straight!

 

anthony any word on the sref ?

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4 minutes ago, keno19 said:

SREF 15z  has jfk at 10 in and islip at 13.5in

I would go with nam and sref add them together, divide the sum by 2 and there’s your total. I think Central Park hits 6 with this storm!

 

still working on the west trend with my machine!

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6 minutes ago, swataz said:

I'm not saying Upton is wrong, I'm saying based on all the banter in this thread am I missing something?

You can read each office's Area Forecast Discussion (links: OKX, ALY, PHI) for the reasoning behind their forecasts. Upton weighed the 12z Euro less heavily because of "differences noted in shortwave progression." As it stands, most of us would consider the NWS forecasts for this storm to be very aggressive in light of the data at our disposal, but no responsible poster would explicitly tell you to ignore official forecasts and hazard statements. For better or worse, the NWS doesn't have as much freedom as we do in responding to model shifts, so if guidance continues to look less impressive, it would take them a while to stand down from the snowier cycles of last night and this morning.

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17 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Why are these numbers still so high?? Was the mean inflated by ARW members?

Its from mid-day. 21Z numbers will be lower.

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