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March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2


Rjay

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-subregional-Carolinas-truecolor-14_42Z-20180312_map-8-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.dfaf11a660473c0156b97269ca6109c6.gif

What location is HSE ?

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11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES16-subregional-Carolinas-truecolor-14_42Z-20180312_map-8-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.dfaf11a660473c0156b97269ca6109c6.gif

Now of what significance will come of this... if any?

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:
Now of what significance will come of this... if any?

If the western lp system is the one which becomes the focus.. Things shift W.

and could that have correlation with the northern stream diving down on the backside of the southern vort quicker?

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Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

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2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range?

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10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Observation:  Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks.  Northern energy now in Ohio.  Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE.  Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough?

So you're saying there's a chance? 

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range?

Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection.  You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection.  You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible 

How come Jan 2000 is impossible? Models have improved too much? 

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