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March 12th-13th ULL Discussion


Hvward

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I think there is enough model noise to make a thread for this one.  12z NAM suite puts more focus on the development of a deformation band that give snowflakes to a decent portion of NC.  I have seen the idea of a secondary low developing behind the main surface low as it moves off the coast of NC and I think that that is something to watch for.  That would keep more moisture around to be wrapped back into the ULL.  Lots of dynamics at play here, so lets see who (if anyone) scores a late one.

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RAH Saturday afternoon...

Due to the relatively warm antecedent conditions, the mixed nature 
of the wintry precip, and a long duration rain event leading up to 
the changeover, not expecting substantial snow/sleet amounts with 
this system. However, with upwards of 6-10 hours of wintry mix 
expected and the potential for a short bursts of heavier precip 
rates, could see a minor accumulation on grassy surfaces, roughly 
along and north of the I-85 corridor with the greatest potential 
from the northern half of the Triad newd into Person and Granville 
counties. 

Since not expecting winter storm criteria, do not believe a winter 
storm watch necessary at this time. However, if the models come 
together on a consensus with the above scenario, a winter weather 
advisory may be necessary for portions of the northern Piedmont and 
northern coastal plain on Monday.
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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

18Z Nam runs are good for most of NC....surface temps will be a issue and accumulations hard to come by but there could be a 2-4 hr burst of heavier snow that gives a quick slushy 1-2" on elevated and grassy surfaces for the northern 2/3rds of NC....

3km NAM went way north and gives DC a good snow with the regular NAM as you described and giving them nothing...pretty wild

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

3km NAM went way north and gives DC a good snow with the regular NAM as you described and giving them nothing...pretty wild

Saw maps of the two solutions posted in the MA forum.  It's amazing how much they differ, almost like inverses of each other.  Of course the MA peeps are hugging the 3K, which seems reasonable from what I have heard.

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Saw maps of the two solutions posted in the MA forum.  It's amazing how much they differ, almost like inverses of each other.  Of course the MA peeps are hugging the 3K, which seems reasonable from what I have heard.

No please no, we deserve for this to stay south for a change.

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12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

18z CMC looks like it's wanting to go further north also!!

I_nw_EST_2018031018_044.png

That's the RGEM. It actually stays south, but it's warmer than some others.  Sfc low is pretty far SE there. You can see it out to hr54 on Tropical Tidbits 

i like the CMC, UKMet, Euro, and regular NAM idea of keeping this a bit south as opposed to the 12z GFS and 3km having it farther north. We'll see though 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

That's the RGEM. It actually stays south, but it's warmer than some others.  Sfc low is pretty far SE there. You can see it out to hr54 on Tropical Tidbits 

i like the CMC, UKMet, Euro, and regular NAM idea of keeping this a bit south as opposed to the 12z GFS and 3km having it farther north. We'll see though 

Yeah, you're right that's RGEM! Don't know why I said CMC? Hope you're right on being south !!  That was a big jump north for 3k NAM though......  What's your take on accumulations? 

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