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Typhoon Tip

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL.  I'm off the diet Coke.  Polar seltzer is the drink du jour.  Coffee is welcome, too.

 Did you finally figure out that aspartame was poison? 

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I am a Central PA weather nutt looking for some advice from Bostonians here.  We are driving up to Boston this afternoon for my daughter to have surgery at MGH on Tuesday and scans and infusions on Wednesday.  Guess I am finally going to get to see my "big one" this winter, lol.  I figure if I can get to MGH Tuesday morning it can dump all day and even if we get stuck there overnight we will be able to get everything done.  My first question to the group is how well does the DOT keep the roads open during a storm?  Do the T's usually run through storms?  I prefer to drive in since my daughter will be recovering from anesthesia on the way home Tuesday but the Orient Heights station is not that far from the Hilton Garden Inn and we could do that in a pinch.  Suggestions?  Thank you my fellow weather warriors for your help!

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1 minute ago, 717WeatherLover said:

I am a Central PA weather nutt looking for some advice from Bostonians here.  We are driving up to Boston this afternoon for my daughter to have surgery at MGH on Tuesday and scans and infusions on Wednesday.  Guess I am finally going to get to see my "big one" this winter, lol.  I figure if I can get to MGH Tuesday morning it can dump all day and even if we get stuck there overnight we will be able to get everything done.  My first question to the group is how well does the DOT keep the roads open during a storm?  Do the T's usually run through storms?  I prefer to drive in since my daughter will be recovering from anesthesia on the way home Tuesday but the Orient Heights station is not that far from the Hilton Garden Inn and we could do that in a pinch.  Suggestions?  Thank you my fellow weather warriors for your help!

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's the mid levels, and that is thanks to the interaction of the nrn and srn stream s/w's.

 

I dunno, I'm definitely not confident in big numbers at this time. I see a few Scooter flags that keep me in check for now. Yeah yeah....I know about banding and some lucky weenies who may get into it, but a wide area of 12-18+?? Not there yet.

It's so tough with mid level banding.  You are either in it or your not. 

Like what happened in SVT during the last one... wasn't Hippy in the upper valley like 8-10" but 20 miles north is 30-40".  Same with like Rutland VT area...a fraction of what happened a county south.  

Sort of like you need a forecast of 8-16" with local amounts to 30" lol.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

It's so tough with mid level banding.  You are either in it or your not. 

Like what happened in SVT during the last one... wasn't Hippy in the upper valley like 8-10" but 20 miles north is 30-40".  Same with like Rutland VT area...a fraction of what happened a county south.  

Sort of like you need a forecast of 8-16" with local amounts to 30" lol.

I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

Thank you!  I figured that they were better prepared to handle it than here in Harrisburg.  Our state offices closed last Wednesday for the storm and all we got was rain.  LOL!!  Four inches around here and everything shuts down.  Our arrival time is 11am but I am planning on heading in 7am or so.  We are trying to get the scans moved to before the surgery in the morning anyway.  I will enjoy sitting in the hospital watching the snow come down!

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have. 

Yeah me too for some reason. The surface low is so far east with this one - it's not a classic look. 

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I am disappointed that we will end this year here without a double digit snowfall event but the skiing will continue to be great of course in the northern Greens so I won't complain too much :).

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12 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I like 6-12'' for ASH. I'm selling on bigger ranges.

That’s what I’ve been telling fam down in MHT. 6-12+

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37 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

So it is a true CDF based on models?

Yeah those are based off the model blend. But big caveats because it includes the SREF, randomly selected EPS, etc.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

This map also suggests some decent banding in western areas into Logan11 land but maybe some awful screw zones in the middle.

Always remember its a 1 hr snap in time

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have. 

Cautiously optismistic......but I'll keep it in check until 12z rolls through.

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51 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Off topic, but can you say something about your trip?  How long is it, is it work related?  I’m pretty envious, never had that opportunity.  Not yet, anyway.  Safe travels!

 

 

Sure. I have a consulting firm that does international work with large corporations developing their leaders to be more effective at leaving inclusively.  I am often in New York london Hong Kong and Tokyo.  I’m visiting London HK Tokyo Taipei in this trip, which is only 10 days.  If you’ve not been to London it is only 6 hours and there are sometimes low fares.  It is my favorite international city, spectacular and full of life.

re weather I appreciate what Chris rotary is saying about scooter flags but the signal has been so consistent for good well inland.   His forecast is climo for a strong nor’easter just outside the BM.  But you know there will be a nice band well inland.  As the precipice field develops early in the storm a band will jut up in a sw to ne orientation well before precipitation develops to its s and e.  That band will sit there and enhance as the storm develops.

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50 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He's expecting 2' of powder and ends up with a coating lol

For PF, 2 feet is just a coating.

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3 minutes ago, klw said:

For PF, 2 feet is just a coating.

Over two feet is really only about 4" unless its above the ankles.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Really? I hadn't looked too closely. I thought 850s were plenty cold even there.

It’s a long way from 850 to the ground 

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6-12” is still looking ok in N ORH.   I can’t see it being outside that range unless some ridiculous band sets in.  I’m expecting 8” at my place despite what BOX says.

If blizzard watches were still possible, I assume they would have been issued for Diane’s area, Cape Ann, coastal NH, and coastal ME?

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8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

yup....way overdone

Tend to agree.  Thinking advy stuff for E Hampshire/Hampden counties.  Being on the far eastern edge I could see eking out 6". 

Good news is that with low expectations, it's mostly upside.  Unlike with so many others...

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28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah me too for some reason. The surface low is so far east with this one - it's not a classic look. 

I really like what the hot Swiss Model is depicting as a possible final

us_model-en-087-0_modnychd_2018031200_71_519_323.png

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I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the physics there... (Not saying it can't evolve that way ... it is a ginormous SD circulation and powerful system)

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  WPC mentioned yesterday that the Euro has on occasions had to correct abruptly west several times over the last year and half over the EC and West Atlantic...doing so in short ranges. We can't be certain we are not looking faux layouts for different reasons just yet.  
 

I'd say traditionally the 24 -hr lead is above the 90th % ... and so perhaps this thing's closer path being 36 hours from the 12z run this morning sort of entering that scope, we have a fair chance at some better coalescence/answer for these lingering questions.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the tin there... 

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  

It's just something to watch that's all. Hopefully 12z confirms forecasts.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the tin there... 

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

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