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Typhoon Tip

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Concerned that these oblong low structures that are on the MESOs may in fact be attempts to correct bodily west ...ultimately, failing in lieu of convection helping to lower height seaward too much and that feedback on carving the residual S/stream wave too far out to see - there is certainly a tension in these runs that is tugging between something, and I suspect it is between the better deep layer forcing versus the models modulating the heights downstream. 

I am still not ready to sign on as this thing not phasing more and seeing that happen tonight more on this next cycle perhaps not really fully getting there until tomorrow during now cast at that... Failure to capture to the bitter end almost makes sense for this immensely complex ordeal.  

What does this mean for us in nyc man sorry to bug you. U guys out there are almost guaranteed heavy snows

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is always the concern being on the western fringe. Plus it’s going to be around freezing when we wet bulb down. Pavement will be wet. No reason to close schools with 3-6” of snow on grassy surfaces.

This whole setup...well not necessairly the setup but looking over the data there is much much that stands out at being rather odd. Obviously, the NAM frontogenesis maps suggest we see some heavy/intense banding across a good portion of CT...but you look at NAM bufkit soundings across CT and outside of IJD these profiles don't seem very impressive too me. Omega within the SGZ at BDL and WTBY are crap...and the SGZ really just flops as we near noon. OTOH, GFS bufkit at IJD screams major subsidence across eastern CT and llvl subsidence further west with not much going on in the SGZ. This will disappoint many in CT (outside of who gets under the band).

Not to mention I still think this whole system away from the storm's center is nothing but banded precip 

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Just now, dendrite said:

That was measured by great great great grandpa Wood. 

Clearing the lawn every hour and sticking the ruler until it was in the dirt?

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That was measured by great great great grandpa Wood. 

lol having seen the pictures in Hartford and New Haven it definitely looked like a good 40-55 inches. 

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is always the concern being on the western fringe. Plus it’s going to be around freezing when we wet bulb down. Pavement will be wet. No reason to close schools with 3-6” of snow on grassy surfaces.

You’re gonna have 3-5” Otg by morning including pavement and your temps drop all day 

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Clearing the lawn every hour and sticking the ruler until it was in the dirt?

He kept his horse and buggy immaculate! Waxed them weekly. Horse too. 

  • Haha 3

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This whole setup...well not necessairly the setup but looking over the data there is much much that stands out at being rather odd. Obviously, the NAM frontogenesis maps suggest we see some heavy/intense banding across a good portion of CT...but you look at NAM bufkit soundings across CT and outside of IJD these profiles don't seem very impressive too me. Omega within the SGZ at BDL and WTBY are crap...and the SGZ really just flops as we near noon. OTOH, GFS bufkit at IJD screams major subsidence across eastern CT and llvl subsidence further west with not much going on in the SGZ. This will disappoint many in CT (outside of who gets under the band).

Not to mention I still think this whole system away from the storm's center is nothing but banded precip 

Hey Wiz - are you sure you're looking at this coming storm? Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM and both look very juicy across the state with deep DGZs and nice omega intersecting it. 

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Hey Wiz - are you sure you're looking at this coming storm? Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM and both look very juicy across the state with deep DGZs and nice omega intersecting it. 

I’m pretty sure he’s hit a few steel reserves this evening 

  • Haha 2

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Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol having seen the pictures in Hartford and New Haven it definitely looked like a good 40-55 inches. 

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

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1 minute ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

who is cranky??

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Just now, dendrite said:

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

Kevin would have slantsticked 48" while the valley got the real 4 footer.

  • Haha 2

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The Blizzard of '88 was talked about a lot in my family - of Brooklyn at the time.  My grandfather was born almost 9 months to the day of  the Blizzard in December 1888. :) and my grandmother was born in 1894. She lives up into her 80's so I knew her when I was a kid and heard plenty of blizzard stories passed on by her parents.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

He's been saying out to sea, east east east for a week about this storm.  He's either going to look like a genius or a stubborn idiot (hopefully the latter).   

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3 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

He's been saying out to sea, east east east for a week about this storm.  He's either going to look like a genius or a stubborn idiot (hopefully the latter).   

Smart dude but rather prickish

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7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Hey Wiz - are you sure you're looking at this coming storm? Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM and both look very juicy across the state with deep DGZs and nice omega intersecting it. 

hmmm...I took screen shots of what I was looking at. Maybe I misinterpret the SGZ on bufkit (I still don't know if I fully understand the purple and yellow contours...even though people have told me...I just forget...need to write it down). 

But what I interpreted was how the SGZ seemed to decrease (slope down to the left) that this meant the SGZ was lowering below the desired height (12K-18K). -15C intersects which is great and plenty of RH within the zone...what I meant by dry was just the look on the skew-t's...though GFS seemed fully saturated.

 

  5aa710d30065b_18zGFSIJDBDL.thumb.jpg.ef44ffe664175f1b58063be1be05a39c.jpg5aa710df87f5a_18zNAMIJDBDL.thumb.jpg.6517eddad83d2b3c7a6c6f81181ebe59.jpg

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wiz never likes soundings....always reads through them and depresses himself.

He will lose his shiat over a few hundred joules of cape though. 

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