March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its a bit more compressed out west....

[MarkO]

9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

Go Big or Go Home, but I'm pretty sure you just lost a twitter follower from Stowe.

[wxsniss]

~ 0.2" qpf added to 12z Euro run eastern SNE

[Diggiebot]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I figured if any storm to go big on it is this one

You need everything to go right to get over 40 inches plus that takes a long duration storm probably over 30 hours with some 4+ inch an hour rates 

[Roger Smith]

Might be pretty close to that map, James, would suggest trending amounts west in VT though, BTV likely to get 8-10" at least. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Go Big or Go Home, but I'm pretty sure you just lost a twitter follower from Stowe.

I am a SNE forecaster for the most part.  I don't do well with the mountains

[40/70 Benchmark]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

[RobertSul]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I figured if any storm to go big on it would be every storm I've ever posted a map for

FYP. 

Just kidding, bud. Looks like you're gonna get slammed - good luck!

[ice1972]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a bit more compressed out west....

What does that mean "more compressed out west"?  Like higher QPF but with the same distribution east to west?  No expansion of the field west just bump them up a bit?  IDK

[wxsniss]

Pretty much add 0.2" qpf to 12z Euro run in eastern SNE... maybe barely a hair more compressed in west

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ice1972 said:

What does that mean "more compressed out west"?  Like higher QPF but with the same distribution east to west?  No expansion of the field west just bump them up a bit?  IDK

It trimmed like an inch out by you.

[ajisai]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It trimmed like an inch out by you.

An inch of snow or an inch of precip?  Yikes

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

Just finished 2 am shift. Went outside to put up wipers on our cars.

Wind is whipping. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

An inch of snow or an inch of precip?  Yikes

Snow...it was negligible....

[bobbutts]

Looks truly epic for the cape.  All snow, winds into the 60's, inches of qpf.

[TalcottWx]

2am OKX

WOW

 

[Greg]

Just now, bobbutts said:

Looks truly epic for the cape.  All snow, winds into the 60's, inches of qpf.

Not sure it will be all snow, most but not all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would honestly expect this.

 

[wxsniss]

It's not like Euro to go bonkers all the sudden, but this is a great step supporting the mesos with widespread 2"+ qpf in eastern SNE

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Pretty much add 0.2" qpf to 12z Euro run in eastern SNE... maybe barely a hair more compressed in west

Bumped me up, we bang 

[Amped]

00z EURO is almost identical to the HRDPS with precip amounts.

[The 4 Seasons]

James, you have a 1-3 range but nothing is shaded in 1-3, you start at 3-6 on your map.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is what i see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually like Kuchera here.

[HullMA]

Nam really pulled one off. I am impressed.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly expect this.

 

Yea that's probably correct. It's cold up and down and snowing cold right now 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, wxsniss said:

It's not like Euro to go bonkers all the sudden, but this is a great step supporting the mesos with widespread 2"+ qpf in eastern SNE

Only one time i can remember it doing that, and that was Jan 23 2016. It was already snowing in NYC and the 00z run came in significantly N of the 12Z run, and this was literally at go-time.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

James, you have a 1-3 range but nothing is shaded in 1-3, you start at 3-6 on your map.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is what i see.

Meant to fil it in in NW VT, but I just didn't have the chance too I was rushing

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually like Kuchera here.

Agree, ratios should be > 10:1 as we get into heaviest meat of storm