March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, the camp of the EURO and NAM will beat out everyone else with the support of the mesoscale models

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nice!!

 

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

 

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

There was a lot of snow except some of the higher spots got blown off and we ran into some logging.

[wxsniss]

Honestly hard to find something to grab onto to help us nowcast this in the next few hours

Such a complex interaction aloft, and at the surface the exact location of the low does not seem to correlate with impact... at least within the next 6 hours

For example by 12z Tuesday morning, the GFS is actually more northwest than the NAM...

Which makes another point: GFS qpf distribution is complete garbage. I'm confident in leaning towards NAM/RGEM/HRRR/RAP at this point over GFS. Also easy to get lost because it's infrequent, but Euro steadily ticked up for 3 runs in a row.

 

 

[NYCGreg]

Big difference is this one is occurring with marginal temps in March; that one was with great temps in January.  Besides, I can deal with this one much better because I was never forecasted to receive two to three feet.

[dryslot]

The GFS has been the eastern outlier where the Nam has support.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, the camp of the EURO and NAM will beat out everyone else with the support of the mesoscale models

I agree...EURO may very well tic east, but that shouldn't really matter for us.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

crankywxguy at it again, still adamant it sweeps eastward unlike what the models continue to show 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Honestly hard to find something to grab onto to help us nowcast this in the next few hours

Such a complex interaction aloft, and at the surface the exact location of the low does not seem to correlate with impact... at least within the next 6 hours

For example by 12z Tuesday morning, the GFS is actually more northwest than the NAM...

Which makes another point: GFS qpf distribution is complete garbage. I'm confident in leaning towards NAM/RGEM/HRRR/RAP at this point over GFS. Also easy to get lost because it's infrequent, but Euro steadily ticked up for 3 runs in a row.

 

 

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

[ORH_wxman]

03z RPM is def slower than 00z too...prob a good 2 hours slower.

[The 4 Seasons]

who really cares what he says? he, nor any of us can influence the outcome.

RPM more stout again with the 3Z run.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

Yeah

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

crankywxguy at it again, still adamant it sweeps eastward unlike what the models continue to show 

Who cares, enough of this cranky....he’s a nobody who all of the sudden is getting noticed. 

[Berlin1926]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nice!!

 

Already put on 350, hoping for another 150 for tmrw before the snow sets in up here in the evening.  

 

This is gonba extend the season even longer up here, and for Jackman/Eustis as well!

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who cares, enough of this cranky....he’s a nobody who all of the sudden is getting noticed. 

We all bust...but just own it.

People respect that.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

03z RPM is def slower than 00z too...prob a good 2 hours slower.

Yeah, Lets slow this down and unload.

[TalcottWx]

12:30am 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here’s the 0z hrdps which keeps ticking west. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

And the sporting club...............

[TalcottWx]

12:30am OKX

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

There is no Van Buren lake.  You mean Long lake?  

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There is no Van Buren lake.  You mean Long lake?  

Eagle Lake possibly.

[RikC]

when does the EURO start appearing???

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

when does the EURO start appearing???
 

50 minutes

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RikC said:

when does the EURO start appearing???

 

About an hour...I'm prob not staying up for it...I'm sure a few here will though.

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, just extrapolate the RAD....that death band looks to camp out between 128 and 495.

Maybe... but I don't think it's simply extrapolation of current radar... the entire system retrogrades northwest with northern stream pull later Tuesday morning, and that is gonna be critical for the bigger totals.

That critical aspect can't be extrapolated from radar, and that's what I'm trying to see if we can nowcast.

Gonna be a thrill of a morning. You staying up all night? I'm thinking of recharging for a few hours.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Eagle Lake possibly.

Im staying on Long lake.  Rode across Eagle Lake today.   There is no Van Buren Lake that I know of??  And I’m very familiar with the area. Van Buren cove on Long lake..but no Van Buren lake.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Maybe... but I don't think it's simply extrapolation of current radar... the entire system retrogrades northwest with northern stream pull later Tuesday morning, and that is gonna be critical for the bigger totals.

That critical aspect can't be extrapolated from radar, and that's what I'm trying to see if we can nowcast.

Gonna be a thrill of a morning. You staying up all night? I'm thinking of recharging for a few hours.

Yea, I didn't mean to imply extrapolation tells the whole story....but it at least gives you an idea of the haves and have nots in a worst case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll crash after euro.

[78Blizzard]

Uncle?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Uncle?

Slightly east.