March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[wxsniss]

Regardless of early antics, and even bigger hit on eastern SNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

More robust for EMA vs 12z

Wow...would not have guessed that.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Bigger hit here than 12z

[Bostonseminole]

seems to stall..around 24hrs

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

See nothing wrong there, in fact it looks better for you clowns out east. Slower and wants to stall. Congrats.

The death band from hell is right over your head

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Be careful comparing WV to modeled H5 vorticity...it isn’t totally apples to apples.

Yes Mesoanalysis is how you compare

[JC-CT]

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yes Mesoanalysis is how you compare

always thought that was just a RAP prog

[LSC97wxnut]

Nam is jumpy on this run?  Sheesh.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Just when we were hoping for a little consensus we get.....NAM'ed 

please don't listen to PBP, look yourself, lot o drama

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The death band from hell is right over your head

The 6” storm total ‘death’ band? Hardly a killer, more like misdemeanor slap.

[wxsniss]

Yes Mesoanalysis is how you compare

Or RAP 1hr depictions hourly

I posted earlier those interpretations of WV did not match RAP H5

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

always thought that was just a RAP prog

part of the equation

The SPC runs a comprehensive surface objective analysis scheme called SFCOA. The system runs at the top of each hour, using the latest 40km RAP forecast grids as a first guess. Next, the surface data is merged with the latest RAP forecast/analysis upper-air data to represent a 3-dimensional current objective analysis. Finally, each gridpoint is post-processed with a sounding analysis routine called NSHARP to calculate many technical diagnostic fields related to severe storms.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

CT is crushed there. Impressive 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

please don't listen to PBP, look yourself, lot o drama

But the surface map says the L looked east. They worry. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The 6” storm total ‘death’ band? Hardly a killer, more like misdemeanor slap.

Queen

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Queen

hypocritical queen at that lol

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

part of the equation

The SPC runs a comprehensive surface objective analysis scheme called SFCOA. The system runs at the top of each hour, using the latest 40km RAP forecast grids as a first guess. Next, the surface data is merged with the latest RAP forecast/analysis upper-air data to represent a 3-dimensional current objective analysis. Finally, each gridpoint is post-processed with a sounding analysis routine called NSHARP to calculate many technical diagnostic fields related to severe storms.

Thanks steve

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Queen

Not trusting a nammy placement of a deform band, call me crazy.

[WintersComing]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But the surface map says the L looked east. They worry. 

But the deform band is bashing me on top of my head and the surface map only shows 6"

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not trusting a nammy placement of a deform band, call me crazy.

How can anybody say for certain where it will set up. The storm really hasn’t even come together yet.  The point is there probably will be significant mid level features. Shifts are obviously possible and even as the storm moves along. 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Appreciate the guidance, would you mind explaining a bit?

Well the satellite has different bands with different wavelengths that measure wv at different levels. I think the rule of thumb was that the more typically used wv images showed you wv around the 600mb level. I haven’t gotten enough into GOES-R to know what micrometer wavelengths they use for their lower, mid, and upper wv maps. I think the mid trop one is 6.9um. Plus there’s the fact you’re comparing vorticity to water vapor. I’m just not sure I would be hyperscrutinizing the two looking for comparisons or model error.

[78Blizzard]

Still going until 5z Wed. here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If I get a foot Kev and JC has been adamant about, I’ll quit the board.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not trusting a nammy placement of a deform band, call me crazy.

nah I'll just call you (by the way Freddie was awesome)

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If I get a foot Kev and JC has been adamant about, I’ll quit the board.

I've been adamant that you aren't out of the game for the mid level magic. Not adamant that you will definitely end up in a 25 mile wide band.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If I get a foot Kev and JC has been adamant about, I’ll quit the board.

Lol why would you quit, that's pretty dumb

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol why would you quit, that's pretty dumb

good point as well

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well the satellite has different bands with different wavelengths that measure wv at different levels. I think the rule of thumb was that the more typically used wv images showed you wv around the 600mb level. I haven’t gotten enough into GOES-R to know what micrometer wavelengths they use for their lower, mid, and upper wv maps. I think the mid trop one is 6.9um. Plus there’s the fact you’re comparing vorticity to water vapor. I’m just not sure I would be hyperscrutinizing the two looking for comparisons or model error.

Ok thanks. bun me!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If I get a foot Kev and JC has been adamant about, I’ll quit the board.

What about my subscription to your site?  I rely on your pbp to see how WNE gets uniquely screwed with each Miller B.

I think 6"+ is now looking doable out here at least.