March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Typhoon Tip]

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

[Logan11]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to read but looks good for eastern Mass on the BTV4.

Some incredible QPF in the mountains, too.  Even cut in half would be big.  Fun week for all.

Interaction with the upper low seems to be very generous even well out west. Model Consensus s .9" to 1.1" qpf even here in the Helderbergs.

[Whineminster]

Sooo do I get 5" or 15"? It's a pure toss-up

[WthrJunkyME]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to read but looks good for eastern Mass on the BTV4.

Some incredible QPF in the mountains, too.  Even cut in half would be big.  Fun week for all.

That has me at 0.25.  That’s way, way off anything I’ve seen for my area. Could b, but color me skeptical.

[Logan11]

Mitch is gonna get buried again I think.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

wait....is this like a joke? If so it is pretty funny. If not, could a norlun event happen within a larger scale storm?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

 

 

IMBY question.... How far N&W do those features appear to make it?  Into coastal Maine or are they limited to SNE?

I would have to say coastal Maine is looking pretty good. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wowzer

You always say go big or go home, right? 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Sooo do I get 5" or 15"? It's a pure toss-up

5". You are docked 10" for a poor attitude

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

Doesn't this kinda scream norlun?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

5". You are docked 10" for a poor attitude

He already said the snow was done for the season. Surprised he is tracking this storm. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

Mitch is gonna get buried again I think.

I've liked the modeled W deform look better than last storm.  I'm still going conservative hear due to experience and valley but if Adams got 2'+ last storm it shows that anything is possible.  That place is generally as big a snow hole as Springfield. 

[DomNH]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

More of an NCAR ensemble replacement 

Thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

wait....is this like a joke? If so it is pretty funny. If not, could a norlun event happen within a larger scale storm?

heh... both I guess... 

Well.. the refusal to just phase the N/stream and capture this thing, collocate ...do the Fuki Wara as that happens, then the two trundling away into the graveyard SHOULD be happening, but the models refuse to do that... 

So what are they going to do with all that uber cold mid level trough closing off ...centered over roughly the PA/NY region?  

As that migrates over head ...the coastal storm seemingly violating physics in moving from inside it, to outside it ... all the while, vestigial jet-stream velocities continue circulating underneath... coastal storm aside, this latter evolution is typically found in the vicinity of Norlun events.  

So I was quasi kidding there with the Norlun but I suppose it wouldn't be ridiculous if one sort of got going... 

[Bostonseminole]

some streamers coming in from the Atlantic, should we start an obs thread?  

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... both I guess... 

Well.. the refusal to just phase the N/stream and capture this thing, collocate ...do the Fuki Wara as that happens, then the two trundling away into the graveyard SHOULD be happening, but the models refuse to do that... 

So what are they going to do with all that uber cold mid level trough closing off ...centered over roughly the PA/NY region?  

As that migrates over head ...the coastal storm seemingly violating physics in moving from inside it, to outside it ... all the while, vestigial jet-stream velocities continue circulating underneath... coastal storm aside, this latter evolution is typically found in the vicinity of Norlun events.  

So I was quasi kidding there 

It sounds quite fascinating at any rate!

[J Paul Gordon]

When might BOX release an updated snow map?

[Logan11]

I suppose the inch of qpf they generate out here for me is sort of from a quasi Norlun.

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... both I guess... 

Well.. the refusal to just phase the N/stream and capture this thing, collocate ...do the Fuki Wara as that happens, then the two trundling away into the graveyard SHOULD be happening, but the models refuse to do that... 

So what are they going to do with all that uber cold mid level trough closing off ...centered over roughly the PA/NY region?  

As that migrates over head ...the coastal storm seemingly violating physics in moving from inside it, to outside it ... all the while, vestigial jet-stream velocities continue circulating underneath... coastal storm aside, this latter evolution is typically found in the vicinity of Norlun events.  

So I was quasi kidding there with the Norlun but I suppose it wouldn't be ridiculous if one sort of got going... 

 

[mattm4242]

I hate being the guy to ask for my own area, but how does Cape Ann look for this? I'd assume it'll be a pretty damn impressive storm here.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 According to this forum every model sucks and even the euro " ain't what it used to be".  

 

lol.  Hopefully this only helps the Maine crew.

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie qpf on that site doesn't go past 72 hours. You'll have to ask ginxy to post one of the weather.us maps. 

The fact these lower resolution models are still showing big upslope has to be a pretty awesome sight for your eyes...seems like a classic setup. It looks so good that you'd prob get actual responses from the IMBY SNE crowd if there wasn't an imminent blizzard. 

Thanks for the info... I can never find UKMET QPF, lol. 

Yeah I'm just happy everyone can find something in this storm.  I don't have to sit here and passively aggressively try to get this to come west .  It's been a good signal for days.  Some negatives like wind speeds are pretty light, but when the global models start spitting healthy QPF that's usually the tell-tale sign up here. 

Good luck to all.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

When might BOX release an updated snow map?

It's usually morning and later in the afternoon.  

[MarkO]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like Jan 2005.

Got friends who live in Osterville. Looks like they're going to get crushed! Timing not so great as they're opening a brewery.

[ORH_wxman]

This is for Jerry and his rpm fetish. A bump west at 15z. 

 

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

That has me at 0.25.  That’s way, way off anything I’ve seen for my area. Could b, but color me skeptical.

The BTV4 is at the end of its range out by you.  I think that's a function of it's grid not that it thinks Maine will only get a 0.25" near Augusta.

But you're right its odd.  I'm not sure I've seen that before.

[weathafella]

Just now, MarkO said:

Got friends who live in Osterville. Looks like they're going to get crushed! Timing not so great as they're opening a brewery.

Opening a brewery tomorrow?   Let’s see what beeries will brave to get a brew.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is for Jerry and his rpm fetish. A bump west at 15z. 

 

Thanks Will!  With all this last minute ramping up I feel pretty good.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Wondering if my wife's flight into BOS tomorrow at 130pm will be cancelled.

Yes American Airlines has cancelled everything tomorrow already

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Will!  With all this last minute ramping up I feel pretty good.

Yeah not much to worry about in BOS metro area I dont think. Looks to be enough into the CCB that even a little unlucky exhaust from banding should not be a huge issue. I think 10-12 is the floor there....with a ceiling of 18+. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is for Jerry and his rpm fetish. A bump west at 15z. 

 

I like that... that would basically be my call for eastern ma