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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The deeper and more wound up this ends up probably means a slight cut in QPF in WNE as precip shield tightens?

You will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cuteYou will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cute

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I'll watch trends today in the meso's but I'll go with 4-6" here.  Need 6" to climb over my seasonal average.  

Need 8 to climb over mine which is 49". Feel that I've got a shot at it anyways.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie qpf for the queens

 

IMG_1122.GIF

Can't help but ask... anything after 12z Thursday?  I'd assume its still in progress to some extent up in the mountains but maybe only another .1-.25".  Resolution looks like it would leave something to be desired though in an orographic situation.

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The general trend has def been to push the critical midlevel features a little NW at 12z today...even the shorter term guidance has been nudging west further south before the models get into clown range where they are unreliable. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need 9.5" for average...feel good about that.

From what I've seen, banding in your area or TOL/ORH.  Some impressive fronto plots over the eastern half of Mass depending on the run.  I think it'll be west of BOS proper though but who knows.  That's what I would lean towards.

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The deeper and more wound up this ends up probably means a slight cut in QPF in WNE as precip shield tightens?

It usually works like that, but not sure this time it applies because the wound up solutions are due to phasing.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Can't help but ask... anything after 12z Thursday?  I'd assume its still in progress to some extent up in the mountains but maybe only another .1-.25".  Resolution looks like it would leave something to be desired though in an orographic situation.

Ukie qpf on that site doesn't go past 72 hours. You'll have to ask ginxy to post one of the weather.us maps. 

The fact these lower resolution models are still showing big upslope has to be a pretty awesome sight for your eyes...seems like a classic setup. It looks so good that you'd prob get actual responses from the IMBY SNE crowd if there wasn't an imminent blizzard. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The general trend has def been to push the critical midlevel features a little NW at 12z today...even the shorter term guidance has been nudging west further south before the models get into clown range where they are unreliable. 

 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

From what I've seen, banding in your area or TOL/ORH.  Some impressive fronto plots over the eastern half of Mass depending on the run.  I think it'll be west of BOS proper though but who knows.  That's what I would lean towards.

 

IMBY question.... How far N&W do those features appear to make it?  Into coastal Maine or are they limited to SNE?

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