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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I agree. It seems really aggressive, but GYX has been aggressive for several days and they often aren’t 

Off topic, but can you say something about your trip?  How long is it, is it work related?  I’m pretty envious, never had that opportunity.  Not yet, anyway.  Safe travels!

 

 

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

How does it sometimes end up that the expected will be almost exactly the high range, like 10" expected with a high range of 11", but the low range will be like 2" or something?

Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described.

Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. 

It works best for large, widespread snow events.

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24 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Nothing better than a peaking blizzard during the day time. Nothing. 

Agree.  That said, the potential in Maine is for a lot to continue during the night as well.  But I'll take whatever I can get in the daytime!

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My area may be trapped in the exhaust zone between epic bands for the 2nd time in a week. 

You should hitch a ride to Pit2.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described.

Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. 

It works best for large, widespread snow events.

So it is a true CDF based on models?

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's solid for SNE outside the berks. I think you missed the upslope potential though.

For some reason I never seem to take upslope into account.  Probably because I have always lived in the "coastal plain" and have never had to consider it.

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You are clearly not buying the big QPf numbers back into central New Hampshire and Western New England

No I am not.  Too many red flags.

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54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

Can't really argue.  However, most of the weenies here should be better educated than that, so when I see this morning's 7"/15"/22" for Farmington, I can salivate over that right end of the curve while expecting the  middle.  (Which if it verifies would push March over 30" for the 5th time in 20 years.)

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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For northern and western Maine, I might be/probably am too low.   But color me concerned about western zones doing more than just sucking exhaust from this thing.

Going to be some screw zones no doubt, Where those are and end up i'm guessing in is some of your flags.

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14 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Would like to just have one 12+ event this winter. We came close in the last event but too much rain at the onset. Thinking this is the last chance but I like my chances this morning.

 I'm with you, my last foot plus was March 2017.   They are a dime a dozen in E SNE.

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