March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[CTWeatherFreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

They likely did not see it.

Thats what I was afraid of; Id much rather believe they saw, and tossed.

[centralmass]

15z SREFs still monsters

[weathafella]

Cal it 6-12+.  Even euro supports that for eastern areas.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

the new model diagnostic update this hour:

"...19z update: The 12z ECMWF has trended flatter though a bit faster with the northern stream shortwave this leads to a bit greater phasing of the trod to the southern stream in timing but being flatter is much less amplified. This is equally supported by the 12z UKMET which are slower and then shift further east with the southern stream system tugging the surface wave east of the GFS/NAM track. The 12z CMC on the other hand trended a bit faster and like the GFS/NAM there is stronger negative tilt as such will favor a GFS/NAM and CMC blend. These run to run variability especially in the small scale will keep confidence slightly below average...."

That's basically an omission that they don't what to do with this Euro input ...   Also, I the UKMet does not appear to me to be that way for the same reason, but more so the two end up in a position that is similar ...if perhaps per slightly variant causes... 

[CTWeatherFreak]

Just now, weathafella said:

Cal it 6-12+.  Even euro supports that for eastern areas.

Yeah, you guys cant miss. Its we out west who are hanging by a thread as you know.  As Scott said, they probably hadnt viewed the Euro before issuing those WSWs.. Im thinking theyre either vomiting in their mouth a little bit now, or decided the run was to be skipped over. Wish I knew which.

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yet they don't include Boston and Providence

Boston and Providence already had Winter Storm Watches posted earlier. These are new watches for areas that didn’t have them earlier.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro mid levels looked like 12z yesterday to me...slightly east. NBD

[EastonSN+]

Winter storm watch just hoisted for Fairfield County. 4 to 8.

They must have early access to the JMA runs.

 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Cal it 6-12+.  Even euro supports that for eastern areas.

Sounds good to me. After seeing the EURO, I'm thinking the lower end. If 0z goes gangbusters in unison, we go for the higher end. 

[JC-CT]

My prediction is the same as whatever the latest model says.

[tavwtby]

Huge spread on ALY probability maps... literally 0-18"...

 

Edit: also the only CT county without a WSW

[CoastalWx]

I’m sure things will do what they always do. Euro op corrects a bit west and other guidance east. 70/30 compromise.

[BRSno]

I love BOX's "Chance of Snow Within These Ranges" text for BOS lol

34%: 8"-12"
16%: 12"-18"
13%: 0"
10%: 4"-6"

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Winter storm watch just hoisted for Fairfield County. 4 to 8.

They must have early access to the JMA runs.

 

ALY hesitant for WSW here... although AFD suggest probability of snow... really??

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure things will do what they always" do. Euro op corrects a bit west and other guidance east. 70/30 compromise.

And whatever it may do..we stamp an "AWT"

[SR Airglow]

7 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Huge spread on ALY probability maps... literally 0-18"...

 

Edit: also the only CT county without a WSW

Looks like you've got one now.

[JC-CT]

fck

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And whatever it may do..we stamp an "AWT"

I think we do the 70/30 now.  I will only make it to the NAM and maybe RGEM tonight so I’ll know before doggie goes out in the am.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

My prediction is the same as whatever the latest model says.

Steady as she goes 6 to 12 here over a foot EMA 14 to 18 Cape 

[Weenie]

Now that DST has gone into effect, what time does the 12z NAM start releasing at?

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

Looks like you've got one now.

Musta hoisted as I was typing

[LSC97wxnut]

Just now, Weenie said:

Now that DST has gone into effect, what time does the 12z NAM start releasing at?

9:45pm I think as the 18z is running now?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

fck

No Tp?

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You broke the streak...we were seeing how many consecutive posts PF could make on this threat about upslope without getting a response. 

Textbook set up haha.  I know the peanut gallery loves to rib ;).

[SR Airglow]

Just now, Weenie said:

Now that DST has gone into effect, what time does the 12z NAM start releasing at?

18z NAM starts running @ 3:45. 

Model times for DST;

NAM 3/9:45

RGEM 4/10:45

GFS 5/11:25

GGEM 12:00

UKIE 12:45

Euro 1:45

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Steady as she goes 6 to 12 here over a foot EMA 14 to 18 Cape 

Looks real nice for you Ginxy.  Good banding signal well west of the low track.

[Typhoon Tip]

Alright ...now... with the 18z NAM off and running... let's make some bets for bragging rights:

who thinks it will,

1 ... be the same as 12z essentially...

2 ... elevate the status to even more terrifying cryospheric dystopia

3 ... completely curve ball some as yet rendition...

[Weenie]

1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

18z NAM starts running @ 3:45. 

Model times for DST;

NAM 3/9:45

RGEM 4/10:45

GFS 5/11:25

GGEM 12:00

UKIE 12:45

Euro 1:45

Thanks! Unlike most of the people here I'm only a junior in high school so my time dealing with weather has been fairly brief.

[Ginx snewx]

No RGEM on meteocentre at 12z

[WthrJunkyME]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Alright ...now... with the 18z NAM off and running... let's make some bets for bragging rights:

who thinks it will,

1 ... be the same as 12z essentially...

2 ... elevate the status to even more terrifying cryospheric dystopia

3 ... completely curve ball some as yet rendition...

Well, you can’t put that out there without your own choice!