March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

congrats mpm

you mean qpf concerns, of course...

[Cyclone-68]

Just a general question... Is the EURO out at 2pm local time with the time change now?

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

How I hope....

 

GFS was 18-20"

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All guidance has separate fronto band at H7 over the hudson river to the MA\NY border. This is likely from the nrn and srn s/w interaction. It's the type where queens see less than .5" QPF and get a foot.

That is what I'm talking about, but kick that east 30/40 miles, and west SNE cashes in.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Just a general question... Is the EURO out at 2pm local time with the time change now?

1:45

[Typhoon Tip]

I would really like the Euro to tick west with some additional depth..

I think it may - it's own EPS trend is disconcerting...  Three consecutive cycles of edging the mean west, while adding members into the western spread (some at RGEM pressure depths!!!) is nothing shy of alarming.

But the higher resolution, fully integrated operational version being inside that camp would better, and boost this from median confidence right up into higher ranges.. We are getting solidly into short term; it's time to schit or get off the pot. 

As is, I am high confidence for SE ...now E zone warning impact (concerns therein..), to advisory west of perhaps eastern CT to roughly EEN ... 

Up in the mountains, ...there is a pig tone of instability associated with that mid U/A deep cold pool ...and the surface high pressure anchored in MN while all this is happening (is a also a teleconnector for ACK lows btw ), will "stretch" the easterly flow because of the arm that extends east into Ontario to the N. ... That takes storm related/conditionally saturated air and does a number of them due to oreographics/upsloping... 

I also stress that this is still an evolving scenario.  As others have noted...we may not yet have seen the best proficiency in phasing, which could still be yet to come.  By and large and so far this 12z run across the board is about an erg of force away from this thing stalling while the N/stream collocates ... if that happens, we start backing arcing bands of S/S+ with 50 mph N gale gusts right down the PHL ...certainly NYC that could be in play already. But for now, we are not seeing that degree of full on capture - and sobriety requires mentioning, this could all still yet collapse more E/SE again.. .

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

For a bad hangover?

If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good.   Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this....

[#NoPoles]

So, one of my friends keeps scheduling college tours at Green Mountain and Plymouth State. However she has had to cancel twice because they coincided with the last two storms. She now has a tour scheduled for Plymouth State tomorrow and Green Mountain on Tuesday. I think my friend has good juju, although she doesn't see it that way.

[Logan11]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All guidance has separate fronto band at H7 over the hudson river to the MA\NY border. This is likely from the nrn and srn s/w interaction. It's the type where queens see less than .5" QPF and get a foot.

There's some kind of convergence or IVT way out over me on all models. The GFS is utra generous with 1" of qpf. I'm cautious in believing such goodness with a low way out at 40/70 (or a bit east)  but looks like there might be some validity to it.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good.   Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this....

Oh, I misread. I thought you did Crown and then wine lol. 

[EastonSN+]

TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount.

[WintersComing]

East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well!


.

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good.   Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this....

That's crazy, in all the photos I've seen you look 55.

[Weenie]

Do you all think models will start trending Eastward or whether the recent East shift was just a correction?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount.

Mid level magic?

[JC-CT]

Just now, WintersComing said:

East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well!

Yeah, youre good but Middletown is f'd

[WintersComing]

Wow Reggie looks nice too


.

[Typhoon Tip]

Know what's amazing ... the GFS isn't showing rain -

[weathafella]

Just now, JC-CT said:

That's crazy, in all the photos I've seen you look 55.

I thInk half of it is acting younger.   Weenieism helps.  But your words made my day! (Well the NAM did but you get my drift...)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, WintersComing said:

East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well!


.

   Enough already.  Most of Springfield is E of the River are the E of River comments implying Codfish gets warning snows?

[wxeyeNH]

Thank you Tip for explaining why the models seem to bring so much qpf westward up here in the mountains.  Good stuff..

Question.  If the blend of model runs held serve would this track and slp intensity  warrant blizzard conditions along the coast?  Low goes pretty far east so I don't know if the coast gets 40mph plus winds for 3 hours.    We have close friends flying with their kids to a long-planned trip to Guatemala out of Logan on Wednesday morning.  They are asking me if they will get out.  The storm should be in cleanup phase by then, hopefully...

[WintersComing]

Herpes model is a Holy Chit too!!


.

[WeatherX]

12z HERPS, pretty fabulous

 

 

[WintersComing]

   Enough already.  Most of Springfield is E of the River are the E of River comments implying Codfish gets warning snows?

Where the hell does Codfish live?


.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount.

Reasonable forecast imo. About what we should expect.

[JC-CT]

nogaps doesn't buck the trend

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2018031112&prod=prp&tau=054&set=All

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Herpes model is a Holy Chit too!!


.

That's a MOG run. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Where the hell does Codfish live?


.

I thought in the 16 Acres area of Springfield by I may be off.

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

nogaps doesn't buck the trend

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2018031112&prod=prp&tau=054&set=All

they still run that?

[mattm4242]

Barry Burbank is all in, has pretty much all of Worcester and points east for 12+, almost down to the canal. 

Harvey is starting to push 6-12+ as well.