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March 12th - 13th Scraper


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End result for the 0Z GFS is that its a little NW of the 18Z run. Northern Stream was definitely sharper. Of note is that the Southern Stream has become better oriented for the past 3 runs. If we can get the Northern Stream to comply, this can be a storm for the ages.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh42_trend.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ace said:

End result for the 0Z GFS is that its a little NW of the 18Z run. Northern Stream was definitely sharper. Of note is that the Southern Stream has become better oriented for the past 3 runs. If we can get the Northern Stream to comply, this can be a storm for the ages.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh42_trend.gif

It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. 

Yep and preferably to its southwest. As currently modeled this is nothing more than a nuisance storm for us.

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Just now, sferic said:

If all the pieces came together perfectly, what would this storm look like for NYC?

Could be a crushing if the streams phase in time, it’s close. But we’re running out of time to make it happen. If it’s not apparent by 12z tomorrow, this will probably be a Boston/maybe twin forks special. 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s getting close but the Northern stream has to dig a little more to catch the southern stream in time. 

It should be noted too that a more negatively tilted southern stream would slow down the southern shortwaves west-east progression. Basically, we want a combination of  continued better tilting of the s/w and/or more digging from the northern stream

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4 minutes ago, sferic said:

If all the pieces came together perfectly, what would this storm look like for NYC?

An incredible storm and would definitely find itself easily in the top 10 snowstorms of all time for NYC. As JM pointed out, its getting late in the game. Ultimately I think its gonna be a moderate impact for our area and severe/borderline historic for SNE. We'll see how it shakes out.

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Could be a crushing if the streams phase in time, it’s close. But we’re running out of time to make it happen. If it’s not apparent by 12z tomorrow, this will probably be a Boston/maybe twin forks special. 

 

although doubtful, alot isnt needed imo... we have until late Monday evening before start time, nearly every consecutive run has improved the northern stream, hi res nam was a miss and still dropped 8-10+ on long island and 3-6ish area wide... the shift we saw from the WED storm the day of event, would b enough to bring the goods in...

 

i just dont like the orientation of the diving Canadian vort, ends up pushing the southern stream southEast then half phase Well OTS...

 

this is as simple as the southern vort closing on hour 30 allowing the PV to push our Lead vort SE instead of capture it and pull it along the trough base....easy fix 

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The 0Z CMC hits New England pretty good. Impact is more or less the same for our area. New run has the same general idea as the new GFS. More amped Southern Stream, Northern Stream is not as sharp. Just goes to show that we need a lot of things to go right to have a major event for our area.

gem_z500_vort_us_fh42_trend-2.gif

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46 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

2 surface lows on the GFS,  pretty far apart. May be right but odd.

On many (most?) models, there's a southern stream impulse that runs out ahead of the digging s/w and tries to initiate cyclogenesis pretty far out into the Atlantic before the low reforms closer in to the coast, under the stronger upper divergence. The CMC graphics on Levi's site show this most jarringly when the "L" jumps due west about 400 miles from hr 42 to 48. In a clean phasing scenario, that wouldn't make a huge difference, but when the interaction is more tenuous like we're seeing tonight, that initial lost ground likely affects the end result to some extent. I think it would help matters if we could dampen that feature out or feed it to the primary trough or something. 

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

On many (most?) models, there's a southern stream impulse that runs out ahead of the digging s/w and tries to initiate cyclogenesis pretty far out into the Atlantic before the low reforms closer in to the coast, under the stronger upper divergence. The CMC graphics on Levi's site show this most jarringly when the "L" jumps due west about 400 miles from hr 42 to 48. In a clean phasing scenario, that wouldn't make a huge difference, but when the interaction is more tenuous like we're seeing tonight, that initial lost ground likely affects the end result to some extent. I think it would help matters if we could dampen that feature out or feed it to the primary trough or something. 

agreed, this feature is (usually) improperly modeled, and spawns our many double barreled model looks...than never come to

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