Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 49 minutes ago, Nibor said: That one member east really skewed it. I'm not a statistician (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night) but it seems to me that one 999 mb member would have exceptionally little "pull" against a cluster of ~20 members in the 970s and 980s. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'm not a statistician (though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night) but it seems to me that one 999 mb member would have exceptionally little "pull" against a cluster of ~20 members in the 970s and 980s. Right? You might be right. Do lower millibar members make more of a difference in the mean location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 SREF look good Plumes are 2-5 areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Quiet here..Nam..Gfs ?Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Quiet here..Nam..Gfs ? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk NAM showed some improvements in the upper levels but still was a miss. GFS coming out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 unless I'm mistaken GFS still running and NOT a miss can someone verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 And the gfs is a missJesus Christ. Posts like this are obscene. That’s all u have to offer then don’t post. Northern stream seemed to dig a little more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 500 on the GFS is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Close yes Dan very close getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GGEM takes a huge step backwards. (at the surface haven't seen upper air maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Offer analysis on the model run instead of just saying “it sucks”. That wasn’t far away at all from being a hit, just a little more interaction between the streams. The northern stream digging more was a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: unless I'm mistaken GFS still running and NOT a miss can someone verify It’s a miss but close at H5. We are running out of time. We should have a good idea by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This things DOA, were never gonna get the SSW to amp enough to out weight the effect of the Polar vort and that pv isn’t gonna phase, the angle and timing are unfavorable, so that leaves us with a mid Atlantic scraper, or a NE hit... Bring spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 When considering this threat, one should ask themselves: what is the chance that MMU sees 3 March events with 6+ inch snows? It's a pretty low chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I still don't like this threat but the Ukie might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: I still domt like this threat but the Ukie might Well we have been here before... globals vs American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This isn’t far from being a significant impact. We’ve been here before. If the northern stream digs a little more and the southern stream shortwave is intact enough and phases in a good place, this can be a nice event. It won’t take moving mountains for that to happen. The PNA is in a good place to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn’t far from being a significant impact. We’ve been here before. If the northern stream digs a little more and the southern stream shortwave is intact enough and phases in a good place, this can be a nice event. It won’t take moving mountains for that to happen. The PNA is in a good place to help. 2 steps back for one huge step forward hopefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The Euro is a Bermuda Basher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro is a Bermuda Basher It grazes SNE then slams into Nova Scotia. Not as far east as you make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, nzucker said: It grazes SNE then slams into Nova Scotia. Not as far east as you make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Ok it's west of Bermuda but it's not even close for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I can't get anything to load on tidbits other than hr 66 but heres the GEPS looking like crap. I made a gif comparing it to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I can't get anything to load in tidbits other than hr 66 but heres the GEPS looking like crap. I made a gif comparing it to last run.Oy. There is really no reach from the n/s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I guess technically it clips the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Oy. There is really no reach from the n/s there. Here's the 3 run "trend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 We need the northern stream to drop into the southern s/w more. We also need the southern shortwave to be more compact and not as strung out along the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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