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stormtracker

March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, check out this sounding....that's a straight up mid day in March pasting. Boom

 

Not too shabby. I don't even care if that's road stickage or not. That would be awfully pretty to watch fall. Heavy enough rates would induce stickage obviously. I just want to watch snow fall one last time this season. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wish I had your optimism. I do think things keep trending nw but only so many runs left and we're not as close as some people think on any guidance besides the gfs because all that light qpf on the nw side isn't going to cut it. The back edge of any accumulations will be the .3-.5 qpf line not .1.  And even there .5 might be 1-3" of slop. The area that gets into the .75 + qpf is where there might be any appreciable accumulation. 

My guess is this bleeds north but that heavy band just can't get in here. Most end up with a slushy 1"'or two and we watch the usual suspects the last 2 years get death banded and 6-12". I hope I'm wrong. That's what this feels like to me. But I'm stubborn and stupid so I'll track it to the end and probably get excited when it throws us that one op run we know is coming that dumps a foot on us. 

The nice thing is, the storm may not do what any of the models are spitting out.  Weather will do whatever it wants to do.  So, maybe we will get the ultimate snow hole, or maybe we will get lucky.  At this point, the storm is still alive...so there is always some hope. 

 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

You’re right. It looks good. It’s a legit hit. Not sure what he’s seeing. 

I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

 

That’s 12z sir

I know. I had a hard time fitting the 18z on the same reply. So here it is. What a difference 6 hours have made.

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the soundings dude. I don't know what else to say if you don't think that looks good

It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. 

Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. 

we need a storm first, then we can worry about temps.  the nam (from what i've read here) has a tendency to, well, "nam", but it's certainly a nice step.  hopefully the globals keep this trend going.

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@Bob Chill or any other experienced members:  Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run?  Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. 

Yup!  St. Patrick's Day storm was around 7-10 inches in Fairfax County if I remember correctly.  It was beautiful!  Didn't stick around long, but accumulated quite well.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. 

The run looks beautiful Bob. Gorgeous run, but it’s mid March. I’ve worked dozens of events like this, some with moderate to heavy rates all day, and it was tough to accumulate. It just is. We know the complexities. Urban centers especially. Offices are likely to stay pretty conservative for these reasons. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. 

You’ll be disappointed 

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That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. 
How is 3k as a long range model

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. 

Absolutely. We’ve dispelled this myth that snow won’t accumulate during the day in mid March plenty of times here. Even into late March. 

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. 

One positive as compared to most March snow storms is that we arent toasty hot ahead of it. Mid 40's isnt like the normal March storm where it was 70 degrees the day before. The ground shouldnt be too warm.

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Just now, packfan98 said:

@Bob Chill or any other experienced members:  Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run?  Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me.

Yea, they diverge often. Especially with larger events 48 hours in time. 3k nam has proven superior multiple times. They both might be totally wrong but picking between the 2 is easy. Even if they were reversed I would believe the 3k over the 12k any day. 

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2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Yup!  St. Patrick's Day storm was around 7-10 inches in Fairfax County if I remember correctly.  It was beautiful!  Didn't stick around long, but accumulated quite well.  

 

It accumulated well because it dumped from the eve into the overnight. 

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3 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

@Bob Chill or any other experienced members:  Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run?  Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me.

No. And I have never seen the 12K and 3K so different in the same run. If nothing else this storm takes the cake on model wars.

Well. Bob just put me in my place on this post :)....Of course I have already started cracking beers.

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

You’ll be disappointed 

I won't be because my expectations have been zero for over 3 days. If the 3k nam is only half right I'll be thrilled. 

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One positive as compared to most March snow storms is that we arent toasty hot ahead of it. Mid 40's isnt like the normal March storm where it was 70 degrees the day before. The ground shouldnt be too warm.

Timing may actually not be too bad on the NAM. Temps barely hit mid 30s before precip rolls in if the 3k NAM is to be believed

we wouldn't be 53/20 like people were in Snowquester the afternoon before

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The run looks beautiful Bob. Gorgeous run, but it’s mid March. I’ve worked dozens of events like this, some with moderate to heavy rates all day, and it was tough to accumulate. It just is. We know the complexities. Urban centers especially. Offices are likely to stay pretty conservative for these reasons. 

Can it improve further from a thermal point of view , ie., colder at the surface, or is that unlikely? 

I imagine with colder surface temps it would stick in the day given adequate rates, but I see your point of view, and Bob's as well. Very interesting  

 

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the temps leading into this event aren't horrible either, so i think that could help with accumulations.  road stickage is always difficult so i'm not even thinking about that, but grass/sidewalks/parking lots...those are fair game if we get decent rates.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I won't be because my expectations have been zero for over 3 days. If the 3k nam is only half right I'll be thrilled. 

Well let’s hope we can score one. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, they diverge often. Especially with larger events 48 hours in time. 3k nam has proven superior multiple times. They both might be totally wrong but picking between the 2 is easy. Even if they were reversed I would believe the 3k over the 12k any day. 

Thanks.  I'm like you and trust the 3k over the 12k. Let's see what happens with the RGEM over the next couple of runs.  Usually a combo of the 3k nam and RGEM is the most accurate guesses that we get.

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