BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 3km NAM is still at range, so last minute trends are very possible. eta: 4-5 more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The NS is diving in right on top of it. Pressing it down so the upper low gets too far south then swings out before any capture can happen. We would need that NS to be diving in way west of where it is or better get it the hell out of there all together. The GFS won’t show this solution I am confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: The 3k rakes them and it is still snowing at 60 I was looking at 12k. 3k is a bomb for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I was looking at 12k. 3k is a bomb for them. Yeah. They just need to retire 12k already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The GFS won’t show this solution I am confident. Which? Pretty sure it's gonna continue it's trend towards a suppressed system for us that hooks in to clip New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I know the ICON sucks but is also have the GL more east diving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 0Z RGEM looks pretty good. Closed 500 at the TN/KY border at 30. Nice precip shield as well. I think it is going to be a hit. Edit: Nope it transfers in a bad spot for us. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 0Z RGEM looks pretty good. Closed 500 at the TN/KY border at 30. Nice precip shield as well. I think it is going to be a hit. no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Which? Pretty sure it's gonna continue it's trend towards a suppressed system for us that hooks in to clip New England. Neither. It will be something different. I just have a feeling. I always look at at both and usually they are somewhat similar. These are so different so close. Makes me think we still don’t have the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 rgem misses, but it's a little better than 18z i think. coastal is a little further west too. i think the nam 3k is basically keeping that ull from drying out as it cross the apps. the rgem does that and i'm assuming so are the others. it's something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Good trend on RGEM is lost at the final 12h interval when upper low goes too far south, but this kind of error can resolve in your favor in two different ways: (a) the digging trend can intensify and pull in the northern stream, or (b) the digging trend can continue to slow down and give time for coastal development to move north No reason to toss yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 ICON has made incremental improvements bringing precip further north each of it's last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It is all about the GL energy. We need it diving west... not east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Meanwhile LWX has increased their 10% chance totals to 7-9" for much of the metro. The 4"+ map shows 30% chance. DISCO: SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will move northeastward Sunday night. As it closes in on the Great Smokey Mountains Sunday evening, it will send some energy to the East Coast that will eventually and quickly intensify into a coastal low pressure system on Monday. During the same time frame Sunday evening, thickening clouds and some light rain and snow mix will develop in our southwestern zones during the evening. As the rain and snow mix transitions to all snow in the central Shenandoah Valley and western Virginia Piedmont a few hours before midnight, the light snow should spread a little farther north into parts of the Northern Shenandoah Valley and northeast Virginia. Snow accumulations are expected to be light further north, while a few inches may be occurring to our south and southwest. There is currently a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Highland, Augusta, and Nelson Counties in Virginia starting at 11pm Sunday. As the rain and snow mix or light snow slides or develops east into eastern Virginia and toward southern Maryland late Sunday night and Monday morning, the coastal low pressure will begin its intensification. Some light snow accumulations may occur as far north as central Maryland and the Mason-Dixon region but given the potential storm track and model consensus, snow amounts will be light...perhaps a few tenths of an inch on average. Locations along and south of I-66 and U.S. 50 in Virginia and over to southern Maryland would be the areas more prone to encounter accumulating snowfall. Overall, through Monday, computer models are not in good agreement as to the track of the low pressure system, snow accumulations and timing of precipitation arrival and ending. Most snow accumulations across Maryland, eastern West Virginia and northern Virginia should occur on grassy surfaces, while snow accumulations in the Central Shenandoah Valley and western Virginia Piedmont could be enough to covered roads and make them slippery. Precipitation will end from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As the coastal low pressure system churns up the Eastern Seaboard Monday night, high pressure will inch its way into the region from the west and bring another round of chilly air eastward. Some upslope snow showers expected in the Appalachians Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 srefs suck... But they did increase the .5" precip contour out close to hagerstown on the 21z run. Had been at the cities. It has moved further west it's last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Now even though it is the ICON...is it just my untrained eyes, or is the GL low...weaker in it's latest solution? (And I asked before...would a change in that piece of the puzzle perhaps not be picked up by the models?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 There is an unusual electrical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico. It has produced 7,000 lightning strikes. I think that weather feature could be driving the models crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is all about the GL energy. We need it diving west... not east yea, and looking at the rgem IR you can see how that GL energy lags a little more on the 0z run vs 18z. that might help to slow the ull and allow a better pass, which in turn could affect where the coastal sets up. i'm generalizing, but it does seem like an important piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 GFS seems similar to 18z at 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Great Lakes energy a little quicker...looks west of the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Hmm actually might be a touch better than 18z at 30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Gfs is gonna be just close enough to torture us for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Hmm actually might be a touch better than 18z at 30.... A little closer to the Carolina coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It should be an improvement. Snowing between 15Z and 18Z and a good swath to the sw per iwm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yeah the GFS at 30 H5 looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Does anyone really pay attention to Roger Smith? Serious question, dont mean to clog. Promise I’ll have analysis on the GFS I've gotten more fake snow from his forecasts this winter than from amped ICON runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Transfer off SC similar but precip field a little more NW than 18z at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Heights better out in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The GFS looks pretty good as well. Much larger precip shield than the NAM. Heavier precip gets up to just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It’s pretty close to the 18z run...gonna fringe us but will keep our interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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