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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol.  in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game.  i'm not even kidding.  a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise.  not saying it will happen!  just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

That a La Niña year? Lol

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i actually didn't even think the gfs looked too bad lol.  in fact, if we can somehow get that precip hole to fill in better we're in the game.  i'm not even kidding.  a low forming closer to the coast could cause a surprise.  not saying it will happen!  just saying i can see why rayno would be hesitant to call it off with various pieces so close by.

Problem is the temps. They basically suck. Real bad.

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually wouldn't be shocked if we had one more threat. Long range ensembles spit out some crazy solutions. One EPS member smokes D.C. nw with a 2-3 foot storm. Another fringed D.C. and jacks VA with 2 feet. There are others. The pattern isn't bad. But I know how late it is and I could care less I'm not rooting anymore I'm just pointing out don't be shocked if we get one more tease. 

Of course 1942 the area had maybe less snow then this year then march 30th D.C. got 12", Baltimore 22", and Westminster  32". 

#hailmary 

It’s no longer a Hail Mary. It would be more like sudden death OT.  Though how we got there is beyond me. I probably fell asleep on the couch watching the game...beer in hand...and shocked myself awake when I spilled it on my crotch. And here we are... :lol:

 

eta: Just went off the deep end. 

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32 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

LWX's probability maps (update just before 5PM) are whack right now. 

54% of 2" or more in DC; 38% of 4" or more; 26% of half a foot and 16% of 8" with a cute 5% chance of a foot.

heh

Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that.

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1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

So, someone help me out here. Where does all of that moisture go as it moves east? Chewed up by the transfer? 

C7DF28F7-982E-4FA0-AEC8-77F80C19814C.jpeg

it skirts mostly underneath and we're kinda caught in between the transfer, so i think we lose the lift we need.  the rgem makes it look as if it sort of pinwheels around the coastal helping to tug it further north and probably also phases with that canadian energy.  or something like that.

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8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It will get eaten alive by the crap Apps.

And the space in between is us.  Drying primary over the apps and eastern bombing secondary.  The energy transfers but the precip is gone.  New low blows up to our NE too far to give most of us anything.  Our fate is evident   

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16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What's worse is they're part of this region.

they seem to think they'll be enough leftover energy from the ull to enhance precip on the western side of the low.  it's not an impossible task as long as the ull is a little further north than advertised.

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It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night.

Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him!

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

It’s been really easy to accept this failure because I cashed out about 48-60 hours ago. I was all-in up until then, but it just started not feeling right so I took what was left off chips and called it a night.

Only problem is my Dad is going to Maine for work tomorrow, so no doubt I’ll be getting updates from him!

Did you used to live in RI or up in New England?

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I'll share just the link of the ensemble spread here, wondering why the sigma blue and green swaths are mostly on the west and northwest sides of the centers?  What does that imply if anything? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018031118&fh=30

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Can someone explain to me how they come up with those numbers..lol. I in 2 chance of 2 inches. 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches. Those odds seem awful high to me. What do they base that off of because i haven't seem any models that really give me a chance at that.

LWX expected snowfal map says <1

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

At this point I’m 100% missing the “storm” but WPC just tossed everyone a bone. No idea what they are seeing. There are two images so click the tweet.

 

 

 

      It's not a human forecaster that generates those.    They're from a weighted WPC ensemble that includes a big chunk of SREF members.    If you look at the SREF plumes, they're super snowy for our area, and that's reflected in the WPC products.    To be clear, I don't buy them at all due to commonly-occurring SREF problems, but it's not due to an overly optimistic forecaster.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

      It's not a human forecaster that generates those.    They're from a weighted WPC ensemble that includes a big chunk of SREF members.    If you look at the SREF plumes, they're super snowy for our area, and that's reflected in the WPC products.    To be clear, I don't buy them at all due to commonly-occurring SREF problems, but it's not due to an overly optimistic forecaster.

srefs, really? wow

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