stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Bring it on buddy. Nah, I'm good. Maybe next time. Buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Time to have a drink or 2 and relax. The real fun starts at 0z tonight. Getting pretty close to crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS seems to have been consistently showing the southern trend. Doesn't seem like it wants to budge. Any other models supporting the 3k NAM right now? Or is it an island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mordecai said: GFS seems to have been consistently showing the southern trend. Doesn't seem like it wants to budge. Any other models supporting the 3k NAM right now? Or is it an island? Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Island Yup. Guess we'll know by 0z if the 18z GFS is a blip, or if the 18z 3k NAM is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Yup. Guess we'll know by 0z if the 18z GFS is a blip, or if the 18z 3k NAM is Or if they meet in the middle which would have been similar to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z GFS still gets 2-3 inches to just north of EZF fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z 3k Nam and Gfs look great for the southern end of the viewing area. Starting to get cautiously optimistic. Both give a pretty good schlacking to the slopes of the southern blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Time to have a drink or 2 and relax. The real fun starts at 0z tonight. Getting pretty close to crunch time. agreed. the 18z gfs outcome was entirely based on the GL energy slight east and north, but it's still way too close to call it one way or another. 0z's should definitely shed some light on where this system will ultimately end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mordecai said: GFS seems to have been consistently showing the southern trend. Doesn't seem like it wants to budge. Any other models supporting the 3k NAM right now? Or is it an island? Most models have come north and west since 6z this morning. 18z 12knam and GFS actually moved west with SLP placement from 12z. It's just they don't interact as well with the stream coming in from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: 18z 3k Nam and Gfs look great for the southern end of the viewing area. Starting to get cautiously optimistic. Both give a pretty good schlacking to the slopes of the southern blue ridge. He didn’t adjust his timing. Too early for initial after today’s guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Time to have a drink or 2 and relax. The real fun starts at 0z tonight. Getting pretty close to crunch time. Yup. That's the worst part though - crunch time is seemingly being pushed back continuously. If I had a quarter for every "we'll have a solid idea by 12z on XX" post or tweet I've seen for this thing... I'd be able to do laundry in my roach infested depression laundry cavern in the basement of my building for weeks! On a serious note though, the position of the low at 00z tues on the 18z GFS was only about 75-100 miles south of the position at 12z. It was at pretty much the same longitude. We're dealing with error ranges here. The bad part of that is that we're on the northern band of the error range. Odds are higher that'll miss south than it will be a hit, but a hit isn't impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 My gut on this is we get fringed...some steady snow for a few hours but 1-2” of slop. Better “stuff” down in Central VA. Another, hey it snowed but not super exciting storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: My gut on this is we get fringed...some steady snow for a few hours but 1-2” of slop. Better “stuff” down in Central VA. Another, hey it snowed but not super exciting storm Good post. In the end that’s how it looks to me from north of EZF to south of BWI get fringed...northeast and southwest of those locations look solid. The 3k gave pause but not jumping in on that. But today was way better than I thought looking at 0z GFs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Aren’t we at the range when the short-term models are more reliable than the globals? Also, did the 12z Ukie have anything good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Aren’t we at the range when the short-term models are more reliable than the globals? Also, did the 12z Ukie have anything good for us? The short range models are OK and have a purpose in banding and temp detail situations but I’d still tend to lean towards the globals in the actual track of systems. The 12z Ukie was close but a little too Far East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, snowmagnet said: Aren’t we at the range when the short-term models are more reliable than the globals? Also, did the 12z Ukie have anything good for us? If you blend every piece of guidance then central VA is the most likely place to see decent snowfall if they aren't too warm. That really hasn't changed much in general even though models have been moving the pieces around. The ONLY model that has had an acceptable solution for potential accums here in the corridor is the 18z 3k nam. It is completely on it's own. No other meso or global drops enough precip fast enough to overcome what will be slightly above freezing temps at best. Personally, I pretty much wrote this one off 2-3 days ago. Just didn't trend the right way at the right time and now we're in the short range. Unlikely that we'll see wholesale changes. On the other hand, there have been "hints" of a decent stripe of QPF through the metros and surrounding areas. It's an outside chance kind of deal is most of us are just expecting the worst and hoping something comes out of it. As far as your question goes, it's always best to blend all guidance. Meso models can overdo things and globals can broad brush them. The ground truth usually falls in between. If your yard has a legitimate chance at something, you'll know by the end of the 0z suite tonight but the final won't be locked in until probably 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Aren’t we at the range when the short-term models are more reliable than the globals? Also, did the 12z Ukie have anything good for us? 12z UKIE was east of it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you blend every piece of guidance then central VA is the most likely place to see decent snowfall if they aren't too warm. That really hasn't changed much in general even though models have been moving the pieces around. The ONLY model that has had an acceptable solution for potential accums here in the corridor is the 18z 3k nam. It is completely on it's own. No other meso or global drops enough precip fast enough to overcome what will be slightly above freezing temps at best. Personally, I pretty much wrote this one off 2-3 days ago. Just didn't trend the right way at the right time and now we're in the short range. Unlikely that we'll see wholesale changes. On the other hand, there have been "hints" of a decent stripe of QPF through the metros and surrounding areas. It's an outside chance kind of deal is most of us are just expecting the worst and hoping something comes out of it. As far as your question goes, it's always best to blend all guidance. Meso models can overdo things and globals can broad brush them. The ground truth usually falls in between. If your yard has a legitimate chance at something, you'll know by the end of the 0z suite tonight but the final won't be locked in until probably 0z tomorrow. Thanks for the clarification. I just about gave up last night, but this morning saw some positive trends to the NW. I hope the 3K is on to something... and I really never give up until the storm is passed. I love it when storms don’t do what they were supposed to do (as long as it means more snow for me!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Surprised the LWX was so bearish on its 3:10 update since we had better trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 HRDPS looks interesting enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Surprised the LWX was so bearish on its 3:10 update since we had better trends. For good reason though. Their experimental snow probability maps show enough. Min for DC is 0, max is 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said: Surprised the LWX was so bearish on its 3:10 update since we had better trends. Better to play it safe for them. Easier to increase enthusiasm than to decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: HRDPS looks interesting enough Eh maybe but it looks kinda SE for 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/972599814675365888 https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/972601961211154432 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: wait is he highlighting with lines a 20% chance of >=4" as where it will snow 2"+ and 40% chance of where it will snow 4"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: wait is he highlighting with lines a 20% chance of >=4" as where it will snow 2"+ and 40% chance of where it will snow 4"+? Yeah I don’t get it. That map doesn’t have that purpose...that guy seems like a crock to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.