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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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Yep, the 3K NAM builds some ridging ahead of the 500 vort that the 12K doesn't, which strengthens the southerly flow at 700 and gets us in WAA precip. Seems to be a very delicate development dependent on exactly where convection sets up - mesoscale boundaries across the TN valley will be important in the next 24-36 hours IMO.

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Heights out ahead on the 3k are higher than previous run. 500mb jet streak pattern is better over WV and VA than the 12km, so the precip field is more expansive toward MD. Vort in Tennessee is stronger as well a bit further west. Very interesting so far. 

 

Edit: Ninja'd by multiple people lol

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn. 3k is legit 

That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. 

H5 evolution was pretty promising looking by hour 39. That ridging out in front was huge IMO. A really nice step forward to getting a good result. Neutral tilt right at our longitude too. Not too shabby

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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

H5 is improved for sure. Prob will still miss. But if we can get these little improvements with each run 

Wish I had your optimism. I do think things keep trending nw but only so many runs left and we're not as close as some people think on any guidance besides the gfs because all that light qpf on the nw side isn't going to cut it. The back edge of any accumulations will be the .3-.5 qpf line not .1.  And even there .5 might be 1-3" of slop. The area that gets into the .75 + qpf is where there might be any appreciable accumulation. 

My guess is this bleeds north but that heavy band just can't get in here. Most end up with a slushy 1"'or two and we watch the usual suspects the last 2 years get death banded and 6-12". I hope I'm wrong. That's what this feels like to me. But I'm stubborn and stupid so I'll track it to the end and probably get excited when it throws us that one op run we know is coming that dumps a foot on us. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. 

But temps and time of day are not good. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

H5 evolution was pretty promising looking by hour 39. That ridging out in front was huge IMO. A really nice step forward to getting a good result. Neutral tilt right at our longitude too. Not too shabby

Dude, check out this sounding....that's a straight up mid day in March pasting. Boom

FlRX2G5.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. 

Yep. It kind of looks like the good GFS runs from a couple of days ago. Track into TN/KY and transfer to the Carolina's is good for us.

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Wish the timing was different. Coming in Monday eve into the overnight. 3k is beautiful but much of this will be white rain especially for the cities. No way it’s going to overcome typical March issues. 

Course. It will suck for urban confines & DCA. I bet you if the 3k solution were to play out DCA would record less than an inch while IAD records 6"+

Also, it extends into the night hours either way. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, check out this sounding....that's a straight up mid day in March pasting. Boom

 

Not too shabby. I don't even care if that's road stickage or not. That would be awfully pretty to watch fall. Heavy enough rates would induce stickage obviously. I just want to watch snow fall one last time this season. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wish I had your optimism. I do think things keep trending nw but only so many runs left and we're not as close as some people think on any guidance besides the gfs because all that light qpf on the nw side isn't going to cut it. The back edge of any accumulations will be the .3-.5 qpf line not .1.  And even there .5 might be 1-3" of slop. The area that gets into the .75 + qpf is where there might be any appreciable accumulation. 

My guess is this bleeds north but that heavy band just can't get in here. Most end up with a slushy 1"'or two and we watch the usual suspects the last 2 years get death banded and 6-12". I hope I'm wrong. That's what this feels like to me. But I'm stubborn and stupid so I'll track it to the end and probably get excited when it throws us that one op run we know is coming that dumps a foot on us. 

The nice thing is, the storm may not do what any of the models are spitting out.  Weather will do whatever it wants to do.  So, maybe we will get the ultimate snow hole, or maybe we will get lucky.  At this point, the storm is still alive...so there is always some hope. 

 

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