ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I know we are out of GEFS fully useful range but this is a sight to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The trend is our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Confidence for 6''+ IMBY low as of right now. Still have time for final adjustments, maybe 2 more corrects west. Game on, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAVGEM took another step in the right direction at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: NAVGEM took another step in the right direction at 12z. Isn't the NAVGEM usually more progressive? That's a fairly impressive shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/972552241101115392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Im with psu..this will trend enough to give us a big tease Maybe even a hit aka dec 2010. And then at last minute...an east trend to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Euro ens mean is 1-3" over the area... and as we all expected, it's crushes SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Im with psu..this will trend enough to give us a big tease Maybe even a hit aka dec 2010. And then at last minute...an east trend to screw us One more big tease and pull back will be enough to send 80% of this subforum walking off the plank and beyond the reach of Prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: Euro ens mean is 1-2" over the area... and as we all expected, it's crushes SNE I mean, it is quite the increase from 0z. Doubled the snow mean for DCA from ~1" - 2-2.5". On the 0z, 6 members gave DC 6" or more (10:1 ratio). On the 12z EPS, it's 7 members (lol increase), but the bigger members are bigger, and more members get a couple inches of snow into DC. Slow and steady I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Euro ens mean is 1-3" over the area... and as we all expected, it's crushes SNE Eastern areas do better I assume. And southern areas also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I mean, it is quite the increase from 0z. Doubled the snow mean for DCA from ~1" - 2-2.5". On the 0z, 6 members gave DC 6" or more (10:1 ratio). On the 12z EPS, it's 7 members (lol increase), but the bigger members are bigger, and more members get a couple inches of snow into DC. Slow and steady I guess Trends, trends. Good thing we still have time for any last minute westward shifts. It is gonna be game on at happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Eastern areas do better I assume. And southern areas also? baby steps. I wonder if Happy hour will start to show some consensus or if we will still be playing model ping pong today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: One more big tease and pull back will be enough to send 80% of this subforum walking off the plank and beyond the reach of Prozac. Nah. No reason to. The season will be over and everyone will enjoy spring and summer. They will come back next year refreshed. and what a year it is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 In the EPS a group of members are way East, interesting, if not correct , I would expect another shift West tonight possibly. Maybe get some clues about that later with the next model cycle from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/972557339135041539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: baby steps. I wonder if Happy hour will start to show some consensus or if we will still be playing model ping pong today. You might do ok closer to EZF. Unless the RIC hit is off the table. Couple inches would be fine. I am not expecting miracles this close to game time. 18z yesterday was a hot disaster so that is fresh on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You might do ok closer to EZF. Unless the RIC hit is off the table. Couple inches would be fine. I am not expecting miracles this close to game time. 18z yesterday was a hot disaster so that is fresh on my mind. still 2+ days away and we don't need a miracle. look at the EPS. This baby is going to hit the benchmark on the 12z Monday Suite and we are all going to get snowed the !@#$ under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Evidence of wave formation (in atmosphere) at this east-central GOMEX buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 note air temp below 70, falling mid-day, north wind, SST is near 80 F weak circulation also appears on Key West radar at around 25N 82-83 W could this be the real storm forming, and pulling in all the other scattered energy over south-central US tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Im with psu..this will trend enough to give us a big tease Maybe even a hit aka dec 2010. And then at last minute...an east trend to screw us That's my gut unfortunately. Another tease and solid band south and east of us then a jack for New England. But maybe this one is different. We will know tonight. Now that guidance has the look down if this is going to continue to trend northwest it will do so tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: still 2+ days away and we don't need a miracle. look at the EPS. This baby is going to hit the benchmark on the 12z Monday Suite and we are all going to get snowed the !@#$ under. We always need a miracle. If not we’d be under a WSW right now. I’m cautiously enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Nam coming in. So many moving parts... What are we rooting for again in first 48h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This could be a crush job for the Delaware and NJ coastline. SNE is probably gonna get shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Here's a summary of the tracks of the coastal from the 12z runs. It flips between the op runs (GFS + GGEM + UKMET + NAM + RGEM), NAEFS (GEPS + GEFS), and REPS. Op GFS is east of the GEFS control, which suggests that the drop in resolution could be contributing to the GEFS more western tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Nam almost looks a little sharper this run. If anything it doesn’t look much different “so far”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: Here's a summary of the tracks of the coastal from the 12z runs. It flips between the op runs (GFS + GGEM + UKMET + NAM + RGEM), NAEFS (GEPS + GEFS), and REPS. Good consensus for tracks that are way east of us...thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: Nam almost looks a little sharper this run. If anything it doesn’t look much different “so far”. Slightly higher heights in front of the storm. Barely though. Little changes as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM has improved a bit further at 500 through 30 hours. Stronger trough, better vort, tighter system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM has a closed 500 in western TN at 36. Very similar to the GFS location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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