gymengineer Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I’ve wondered over the years what 2/16/96 would have looked like in today’s improved models in the lead up to the event. I imagine a repeat of that event would still have some wild swings in model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Seems like we have been 60hrs out from this for like 3 days. LOL. 3k seems a little east of 12k through 56hrs. Still gets precip on to the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And west Yep... that is what I said yesterday... we need the GL west to pull the SL up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice It's not as close as the precip maps look most of that stuff near us is snow tv. It does hook the good stuff back into New England though so that's good. The trends are encouraging but the way this is going is a typical fail setup for us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 There’s like 4 or 5+ main pieces to this puzzle. NS, SS, GL, HP, 50/50... No wonder the models are flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @cae No because the upper energy is being stretched and suppressed by the next northern system diving in on top. This new evolution is fools gold for us. Out ticket was the NS vort diving in from the NW. That gets sheared apart and suppressed. The one diving in right on top of us can't work. It would have to come down west of Michigan to pull that off. Not enough time for that kind of adjustment imo. Our only hope is to get the first vort to trend stronger and get it in front of the northern stream diving in on top. Get that captured and tugged North. If the first system goes out then a new miller b pops from the next vort we have no chance. That will be for New England. Maybe New Jersey. But even if my first scenario happens that's how Boxing Day happened. The system would still probably slide east too far before turning. We would still be a long shot. Our only shot is getting that vort stronger and a low up into KY so everything ends up transferring to the va capes. Otherwise we need some 1 in 100 year type capture and pull back scenario again. this whole new setup sucks for us now. It looked good when that first vort was the one. Good angle of approach. Good ridge trough axis. But that vort diving down is on top of US. Way too far east to do us any good. It's evolving towards another miller b screw job imo. Yeah. I referenced Boxing Day earlier but it got culled - I wasn’t trolling. These runs remind me of that so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: There’s like 4 or 5+ main pieces to this puzzle. NS, SS, GL, HP, 50/50... No wonder the models are flip flopping. Exactly. Every 6 or 12 hours depending on the model run is being thrown into wild convulsions over the new data coming in. Its a big ask for this to come together just right. But there is a path to victory and we are going to have a better idea by tonight in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not as close as the precip maps look most of that stuff near us is snow tv. It does hook the good stuff back into New England though so that's good. The trends are encouraging but the way this is going is a typical fail setup for us now. It's close, especially H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah. I referenced Boxing Day earlier but it got culled - I wasn’t trolling. These runs remind me of that so much. How so... the Boxing Day if I remember correctly... we were under a WSW and never got a flurry. If we get anything from this (which I doubt)... we will back into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Who said we didn;t have time? Now we have a whole new solution thoughAgain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Interstate: Boxing Day a WSW was hoisted hella late - we chased being on the fringe all week in a similar setup- lots of “its so close posts” - late model runs seemed to finally do the trick but then at the end wide right. This whole evolution has been so similar to that including the way it will probably miss. eta: the Boxing Day thing remains really fresh for me because that was when I was traveling in TN for the holiday and made the call to fly my family back early to avoid the storm...I tracked the hell out of that one with the rest of you. The misses then are similar to the misses now in terms of set up and what we are hoping to get right at game time... double eta: it snow TV’d Boxing Day when I was living in NE Balt city for hours. Didn’t accumulate even a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Regardless of what happens at this point it is going to be another miss for those of us to west. We were dependent on a robust system tracking into TN or KY for us to have a chance. But a western screw job would fit right in with the trends the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: dude we got plenty of time. The Nam shifted by 900 miles lol in one run...the storm for us now is Monday night....its a completely different storm than what we been tracking Yea we have a shot. But I'm a bit perturbed this is no longer the "classic" mid Atlantic D.C. snow setup. Now instead of a nice juices up gulf system from the SW slamming into a block we are back to needing the northern stream to bomb and pull a system straight up the coast west enough for us. I seem to remember several of those in the last couple years. How they been working out for us? That said every storm is different. Recent history does not guarantee future results. But I liked the setup we had better then the one we got stuck with now. I feel like we traded in a BMW for a malibu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Regardless of what happens at this point it is going to be another miss for those of us to west. We were dependent on a robust system tracking into TN or KY for us to have a chance. But a western screw job would fit right in with the trends the past 2 years. Agreed. This sucks hard for your area as this has now trended and I am reduced to crossing fingers for magical steam interactions at just the right time for my area. Less than ideal. someone go find southern vorts that are not wimps for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea we have a shot. But I'm a bit perturbed this is no longer the "classic" mid Atlantic D.C. snow setup. Now instead of a nice juices up gulf system from the SW slamming into a block we are back to needing the northern stream to bomb and pull a system straight up the coast west enough for us. I seem to remember several of those in the last couple years. How they been working out for us? That said every storm is different. Recent history does not guarantee future results. But I liked the setup we had better then the one we got stuck with now. I feel like we traded in a BMW for a malibu Good news is the repairs to our Malibu storm will be much less expensive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: How so... the Boxing Day if I remember correctly... we were under a WSW and never got a flurry. If we get anything from this (which I doubt)... we will back into it. Does the NAM storm tilt negative at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I like the H5 trend on the ICON too. Unfortunately we're running out of time for much more improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's close, especially H5 You're probably right. I need to reboot my expectations and give this new look a chance. I'm probably looking at it differently considering I'm 60 miles North of you and as I said to JI I liked the old setup way more then this. This exact setup fails for us way more often then a system coming at us from a southwest trajectory. I would rather this just be a nothing burger then if it ends up dumping another foot of snow on the Delmarva and NYC while we get flurries. That's just too painful a prospect and I'm mad it's even an option again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Regardless of what happens at this point it is going to be another miss for those of us to west. We were dependent on a robust system tracking into TN or KY for us to have a chance. But a western screw job would fit right in with the trends the past 2 years. Yep. What was looking like a money track for us out west has morphed in what this winter has been all along. We need a pattern change...like spring, summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, cae said: I like the H5 trend on the ICON too. Unfortunately we're running out of time for much more improvement. We need 2 more adjustments like the one we got 12z. But those become less likely as you get closer. But it's possible. The setup is within range of what we need. But often this setup will trend to the edge of what we need and just tease us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS looks a tad weaker with the N/S wave coming into the Plains through 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS looks a tad weaker with the N/S wave coming into the Plains through 18 hrs. It is all about the energy in Canada now. Does it relax a little or move southwest. Either one of those would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 So, if I’m following this correct....we need the energy in Canada weaker and further north/west, or stronger and further south? We can win two different ways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: It is all about the energy in Canada now. Does it relax a little or move southwest. Either one of those would work It’s slighty SW so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: It’s slighty SW so far Yeah. We need it to be southwest to pull the SL up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS is much better this run. Tracking energy up into TN then jumps off of the SC/NC border. Should get precip into everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS looks like it might be good with the PL track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Hmmm. GFS looking better this morning, at least into the Mid South. Trough has a bit more energy, surface low further north. Looks like Canadian piece and 50/50 slightly more favorable. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 What about have that low in TN trending north a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Gfs showing minor but similar improvements through 36 hours. Everything is definitely moving the right direction but is there enough time to get it all the way and not just leave us at the alter again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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