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stormtracker

March 11-12 Potential Storm

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The 12 Ukie is horrible. What a shift from 24 hours ago. Looks like it wouldn't give us any precip. 

I liked the gfs op run. But I wanted that to be what the center of guidance was. It now looks like the gfs is the extreme amplified outlier among all guidance. Not feeling any better today. 

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Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K.  And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K.  And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything?

Yes.. this is what I see and what I was alluding too as well. There are way too many "We need this and that and the other" to make this work. You get more than one variable to move at this range and I lose hope! I mean, the variables get removed and I am in. Would be funny to see the EURO swing our way, but no one would trust it! You are right on! I was sold yesterday about this time! 

 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K.  And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything?

noon was amazing yesterday. The GFS had a near HECS..UKMEt came in with a HECS...GGem got close.....we all thought the euro was going to shift but Dr no came back stronger than ever and won again

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2 minutes ago, Ian said:

Jan 30 2010 is our only hope. ;)

i am guessin Feb 5-6 isnt #1 analog anymore?

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the GFS is slowly killing is

 

12z yesterdaty--amazing

18z--south--red flag

00z yesterday--great run but not as good as 12z

6z disaster

12z good run but not as good as 00z

even our recoveries are going south

 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That storm missed me up here :( 

yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? 

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Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. 

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Just now, mappy said:

yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? 

The cutoff was sharp. Westminster south was good. 5" plus. But I think where I am was only 2" from like .08 qpf. That's not gonna cut it. Even the totals south were aided by high ratios. It was a powder storm. The real dynamic precip was towards richmond. I don't think a repeat would end well for anyone really. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i am guessin Feb 5-6 isnt #1 analog anymore?

analogs are great because there's always something to cherry pick

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also the 4-8" the D.C. Area got was aided by high ratios. That same event would be 1-3" now imo. 

blerg

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? 

Vly6VdQ.png

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This winter has seen so many shifts in the models even this far out, it doesn't seem worth it to get disappointed with this run as it was to get excited about yesterday's

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

Vly6VdQ.png

oh thats not nearly as bad as i was expecting. i've been fringed worse since i've moved north. 

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Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. 
Whens the next fail

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That map isnt right. I got 0.0 :)

The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm?

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Just now, gymengineer said:

The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm?

yeah was about to ask if he lived somewhere else at the time. of course the lwx page seems to be lost with the site update.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That storm missed me up here :( 

 

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

One of the most painful fringe jobs in history. 4 inches 4 miles from me. 

MODIS visible satellite image showing snow cover - click to enlarge

Like I said before: Martial law. Every weenie for themselves. :P 

On a serious note though I’m still not awfully concerned. We’ve seen more amplified trends at short leads recently and there’s still room for subtle shifts to put us back in the game for something, even if it isn’t the colossus hit we were all praying for. I think we need another 24 hours before we have to pull the plug.

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Just now, gymengineer said:

The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm?

I live NW of Winchester. But I could be confusing it with another storm. They all seem to blend together the older I get :)

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